Stat of the Day, 18th February 2014
Our four-day winning streak came to an end yesterday, but there was no disgrace in Doldrum’s run at Wolverhampton. He simply didn’t have any extra to give late on and was the runner-up.
He seemed to have every chance entering the final half-furlong but was outpaced in the race to the line at an SP of 4/1, a point lower than advised.
I’m looking for a quick return to winning ways with a runner in the…
Taunton seems to be one of the tracks that favours horses with previous experience at the course, which points us in the direction of the current 3/1 BOG (BetVictor) favourite The Happy Warrior who comes here on the back of a win at Exeter over today’s trip on heavy ground nine days ago.
He was a winner by 2.5 lengths that day, despite being badly hampered on the turn for home and then making a real hash at the 2nd to last hurdle where his jockey lost his irons. So, all in all, he did well that day. He’s a former C&D winner from three starts ago and is in good nick, finishing 3121 in his last four efforts.
1. Since the start of 2012, handicap favourites at Taunton priced at 4/1 or under have won 41 of 94 races, a 43.6% strike rate generating 41.4pts profit to level stakes, an ROI of 44%, not bad at all from short-priced favourites!
2. Horses priced at 4/1 or under running at Taunton within 10 days of a win over the same trip have won 4 times and been placed 4 times from 12 efforts.
3. Horses who have previously won over course and distance here at Taunton, have a good record when returning to the course on the back of a recent win anywhere. In fact, of the 30 such runners priced at 5/1 or under since the turn of 2011, exactly half (15) of them have won and this has resulted in profits of 16.84pts, or 56.1% of stakes invested.
The Happy Warrior ticks all those boxes today, and escapes a penalty for that last win at Exeter, as it was a conditionals race and as such looks well weighted to record a third win in four runs. So, it;s a 1pt win bet on The Happy Warrior at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor. 11/4 seems to be the norm elsewhere, as you’ll see if you just…