Double Dutch, 19th February 2014
Yesterday started well with a pair of 7/2 shots finishing first and third, giving us another shot at a a winning day, but the two shorter priced selection in the following contest both conspired to disappoint.
Fire In Babylon failed to beat a single rival home, whilst Travel could only manage a third placed finish, beaten by 2.5 lengths behind runners at 14/1 & 9/1!
All in all, a losing day, but a winner and two thirds from four is decent. We’ll aim for better today! 😀
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Comical Red: won at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
Brantingham Breeze: 3rd at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
Travel: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Fire In Babylon: last of 7 at 2/1 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
156 winning selections from 546 = 28.57%
53 winning bets in 145 days = 36.55%
P/L : +37.25pts (+13.02% ROI)
Taking a couple from “Leafy” today:
Ultimate Warrior can be forgiven a poor run last time out, as it was his first run for four months and it was his debut for his new yard. Add in to this, the fact that it was two grades higher than today makes him more appealing this time around. He looks well in at the weights and has run well (without winning, though) at this trip in the past, when his best effort was a defeat by a neck at Kempton last year. It isn’t a strong race and one he could take at 5/2 BOG with Stan James.
Dove Mountain was interesting here and could have run well at a decent price, but was withdrawn whilst I was typing, so I’ve got to go with the form pick, Big Kenny, who is currently the favourite, now best priced at 7/4 BOG with PP after the non-runner. He returned in mid-December from a 10-week break and has since returned figures of 1132336 and drops down in class from his recent runs. he has two wins and two places from his last four runs at this level and seems to go best in these smaller fields.
Masterpaver is the one to beat here and he arrives on the back of a hat-trick. He’s a tough one for the handicapper to get a grip on, as he always seems to just do enough to win, despite his recent rise in the weights. The middle run of his hat-trick was here over course and distance, before stepping up to 1m4f last time out at Kempton. He’s up another 5lbs today, but the drop back to 10f will help his cause to record a 4th consecutive win at today’s 15/8 BOG.
He beat the re-opposing Mary Le Bow by a head that day, but the latter is only a pound better off after a rise, so I fancy the placings to remain unchanged between the two, but at 3/1 BOG, she would have to be the backup plan. One of these days, Masterpaver might not quite do enough or encounter a problem and with Mary Le Bow running him so close last time out, today might be that day!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Big Kenny / Masterpaver @ 6.91/1 (7/4 & 15/8 : PP)
Big Kenny / Mary Le Bow @ 9/1 (6/4 & 3/1 : SkyBet)
Ultimate Warrior / Masterpaver @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8: Betfred & Stan James)
Ultimate Warrior / Mary Le Bow @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : Betfred)