Stat of the Day, 19th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2014

No win yesterday, but no great disaster either. The Happy Warrior was well fancied yesterday and set off as the 15/8 favourite, in from our advised 3/1 odds. He was, by far, the first home of the more favoured runners, but he couldn’t get within 5 lengths of the eventual winner and runner-up.

Mind you, not many would have picked those two to beat our selection, as they were returned at 50/1 & 20/1 respectively with the forecast paying 780/1. These things happen and we don’t let them get to us.

We’ll dust ourselves off, knock a point off the tally and look for a winner in today’s…

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5.25 Kempton:

Where I’ve just taken 9/2 BOG with Betfred about Roy’s Legacy, who returns to the track just four days after a narrow defeat at Lingfield.

During the first quarter of each of the last couple of years, male horses who finished second, third or fourth last time out, but were beaten by less than 2 lengths ran well when sent back out within four days. In fact, their record when priced at 6/1 or under reads 33 winners from 83 runners, a strike rate of 39.8% which has yielded level stakes profits of 47.5pts at betfair SP, a return of 57.25% above stakes.

In handicaps only, those figures are 24/66 (36.34% SR) for 39.86pts (+60.4% ROI) and at Kempton: 6 winners from 14 (42.9% SR) for 10.17pts (+72.6% ROI) profit. Obviously, the more we filter down, the fewer the number of runners, bringing us ultimately to 5 winners from 12 Kempton handicaps for 8.33pts profit.

Roy’s Legacy runs off 69 today, the same mark as his last effort and that puts him just 1lb off top rated here, but that’s not an issue for us.

Since the start of 2010, male horses aged 4 to 6 running in Class 5 A/W handicaps who were either top rated or within a pound and were priced between 5/2 and 6/1 at the same class race as last time out have won 84 times from 356 runs. This is a decent 23.6% strike rate and the profit of 121.55pts represent over 34.1% of stakes invested.

If we consider just the Kempton races in that same time frame, we get 29 winners from 96 (30.2% SR) for 69.1pts (+72% ROI) profit.

Roy’s Legacy ran well in defeat the other day over 6 furlongs, he was only beaten by three parts of a length and was only headed late into the final furlong. 6f has always been a bit of a stretch for him, as all his eight wins to date are over today’s minimum 5f and he returns to Kempton today where has won three times from six attempts over course and distance.

He gets the track and trip and looks a decent value proposition today, so it’s a 1pt win bet on Roy’s Legacy at 9/2 BOG with Betfred for me. 4/12 seems to be the norm elsewhere and he may well shorten further. You’ll see all this when you…

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