Double Dutch, 20th February 2014
Wednesday went pretty much the same way as Tuesday, I’m afraid. It started well enough with Big Kenny landing the first race with the added bonus of a 1-2 finish for a small £5.16 forecast.
And then, just like Tuesday, race 2 brought us a third place finish and a runner who failed to beat a single rival. Masterpaver came the closest to completing the double for us, but contrived to get beat late on, going down by two heads and the official write-up says it all really: “…ridden to lead approaching final furlong, hung right under pressure inside final furlong, headed and lost two places near finish”
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Big Kenny: won at 5/4 (adv 7/4)
Ultimate Warrior: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
(The forecast paid £5.16 here)
Masterpaver: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 15/8)
Mary Le Bow: last of 5 at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
157 winning selections from 550 = 28.55%
53 winning bets in 146 days = 36.30%
P/L : +35.25pts (+12.24% ROI)
After a couple of losing days, we aim to get back to wining ways with these today:
Carraig Mor has made a decent start to his racing career and but for a bad mistake three from home last time out at Ascot, he’d be unbeaten in three runs. He kicked off with a win over 3 miles on heavy ground in an Irish points race, before landing a hurdles race at Uttoxeter on his UK debut. That was over today’s trip and he was a good 25 lengths clear of the field that day, before going on to Ascot. He was sent off at prohibitive odds of 1/8 there and made a real mess of the third from home, bringing him to a standstill and costing him the race.
He still managed to get going again, rallied and made up ground to lose by just one length, which in itself was pretty good going. Alan King’s runners seem to be hitting some decent form of late and it’s no surprise to see Carraig Mor at the head of the market for this one at 11/10 BOG.
He won’t, however, have it all his own way and I expect the Alfred Bartlett-bound Mosspark to have a big say in events here today. Another unexposed type who is 2/2 to date, both on similarly soft ground to today and the latest was over today’s trip. His Cheltenham entry suggests his handlers hold him in high regard and the way he put he put his last race to bed says that there may well be some value in the 3/1 BOG on offer from Stan James.
Up And Go was a decent sort over hurdles and although he hasn’t quite hit the heights of his Class 2 hurdles victory since the switch to chasing looks to have decent chance at the weights here today. His trainer Donald McCain has a good record in these Scottish Novice Chases (13 winners from 29 in the last couple of years) so this one might have been strategically placed today. He has weakened late on during his two previous efforts over fences and it is hoped/expected that a drop back to the minimum 2m here will bear fruit at 15/8 BOG.
My preference as a backup is for Rockawango who will look for a return to winning ways after a fall at the second fence last time out. He won two starts ago on his chase debut (2m, heavy at Carlisle) where he beat the reopposing Little Glenshee by six lengths. The latter had led until a mistake at the last led Rockawango in and Little Glenshee has had two heavy falls in her last two outings, which steer me back to Rockawango as the likeliest challenger to the favourite. We’re not getting rich here, but 7/2 BOG is a fair enough price from Stan James.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Carraig Mor / Up And Go @ 5.04/1 (11/10 & 15/8 : Coral)
Carraig Mor / Rockawango @ 8.45/1 (11/10 & 7/2 : Stan James)
Mosspark / Up And Go @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Hills, Boylesports & Stan James)
Mosspark / Rockawango @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Stan James)