Stat of the Day, 21st February 2014
Malaysian Boleh was disappointing back in 6th place last night, after being held up for a run that never materialized, leaving him some 6 lengths behind the eventual winner, who once again was the provider of a sort of silver lining for me.
Once I knew we were beaten, I was happy to see former Geegeez horse Khajaaly take the spoils on a welcome return to form and although sentiment often forms little/no part in racing, it was good to see him take the race, if we couldn’t.
We’re now in search of a winner to get the week back on track, so we’ll take aim at the…
Daniel Loughnane’s horses have a really good record here at Lingfield on the A/W, with an overall tally of 15 winners from 63 runners and if we discard the 15 losers priced above 14/1 we’re left with a record reading 15/48 (31.25% SR) for 49.45pts (+103% ROI) profits.
Daniel actually has four runners at the track today, but the one I’m most interested in is Matraash, who is 5 from 8 over today’s 10f trip and 5 from 8 under today’s jockey Shane Kelly. This will be the horse’s fourth run over course and distance, having secured victory in each of his last efforts here, whilst his overall record in sellers reads 11131.
He has won four times in his last seven outings (placed on two other occasions) and was last seen finishing fourth in a seller at Wolverhampton and he went down by three lengths that day and a return to his favoured track off the same mark suggests he’ll be competitive today.
This thought is backed by the fact that since the start of 2013 in Class 6 A/W Claimers or Sellers, horses running at odds of 13/8 or higher within three weeks of a top four finish last time out and whose last win came in a seller or a claimer, have won 24 times from 96 runs for a 25% strike rate. This has produced 75.7pts profit, a return of 78.8% above stakes invested.
So, we’ve a course and distance specialist coming here in good nick and running off his last winning mark and who also satisfies the main stat above. That’s enough for me to put my 1pt win bet on Matraash here today. I’ve taken 11/4 BOG with Coral, but the same price is offer at both BetVictor and Stan James, so you’ll have no trouble getting on at the same price here.