Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2014
As much as I was disappointed with the handling of our selection on Friday, I was delighted by the way Graeme Gibbons got Tarooq up on the line to snatch Saturday’s race by a head.
It was a perfectly timed ride up the rail to just about get there at cracking odds of 5/1 to make the week’s figures suddenly look a whole lot better.
Sunday is a bit bereft of pertinent stats, but I might just have something in the…
Where I’m backing Proud Times at 11/4 BOG.
Proud Times is trained by Ali Brewer, a trainer who struggled in her early days, failing to record a single victory from her first 23 runners spread over a 15 month period to June 2013. However, in the last eight months, she has been in great from from a small string of horses, saddling up 12 winners from 57 runners, no mean feat for one of racing’s lesser lights.
This recent 21% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 21.5pts so far, a figure equivalent to 37.7% of stakes invested. The bulk of the profits (17.2pts ) have come in hurdle events, where she is 5/21 in those last 8 months.
Incidentally, all 12 winners have come from the 36 runners priced between 13/8 and 12/1 with that 1-in-3 strike rate generating some 42.5pts profits (+118.1% ROI), with today’s selection Proud Times being the stable star, winning five times from thirteen.
Not only has he won five of his last thirteen races, he comes here boasting a record of four wins from his last five races and has a win and a runner-up finish from his two efforts on heavy ground to date.
He will be ridden by Jack Doyle today, who has already steered the horse to victory on three of the six occasions they’ve been partnered together, whilst Jack’s record on Miss Brewer’s sub 8/1 runners is five wins from nine for 14.73pts profit.
It doesn’t look a particularly strong race here and the incidental stats are enough to point me towards a 1pt win bet on Proud Times at 11/4 BOG. The price is quite widely available and I’ve gone with BetVictor for this one, but you can always…