Double Dutch, 26th February 2014
There was an unpleasant symmetry about yesterday’s races: two 4-runner races, two runners-up and two last place finishes.
It’s rare for us to go a couple of days without even a race winner, but Shannon Haven’s defeat by a nose was as close as we got, I’m afraid.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Barenger: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 7/4)
Phase Shift: last of 4 at 9/2 (adv 7/2)
Shannon Haven: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 6/4)
Ventura Reef: last of 4 at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
163 winning selections from 574 = 28.40%
55 winning bets in 152 days = 36.18%
P/L : +47.63pts (+15.88% ROI)
We’re still well ahead of the game despite not landing a double for a few days. I would, however, be expecting to push the profits back past the 50pt barrier with these today:
Jeanry might well be in the twilight of his career now at 11yrs old, but he hasn’t exactly been overworked with just 22 starts to his name over 5 yrs. He had a brief dabble at chasing back in 2011/12 (3 races) and was a decent enough 2nd on his chasing debut here at Bangor on soft ground. He has been running over hurdles of late with some consistency, before reverting back to chasing at Chepstow four days ago.
He won very easily under hands and heels that day and despite easing right down late on, he still won by 7 lengths on heavy ground. His recent form on soft/heavy ground is encouraging and I don’t think he was overextended on Saturday either, such was the ease of his victory. He’s due to go up another 4lbs, so he’s well in here today despite a penalty and he’s a very good chance of doubling up at 11/4 BOG with BetVictor.
Should this race come too soon for Jeanry, then another LTO winner, Lord Nevits, looks the likely beneficiary here today. He absolutely strolled home when winning at Leicester a fortnight ago. That was his debut for his new yard and also his first attempt over the larger obstacles and he’s every right to improve further for the experience. He was a ten lengths winner that day and further progression allied to the manner of that last win means we’ll not get the 8/1 he was sent off at LTO. He’s actually a best-priced 6/4 BOG favourite to take this.
Premio Loco is another old-timer at 10 yrs od, but he has little/nothing to prove with a career record of 13 wins and 6 places from 40 starts to date. His A/W record is fantastic with 6 wins from 9 and he comes here defending a 3 from 3 record at the track, all over today’s Course and Distance. He’s actually a nine-times winner at this trip and has won several Pattern races. He’s possibly not as good as he used to be, but he’s entered for the Winter Derby next month, so he’s still held in high regard.
He bears a 7lbs penalty today and at 2/1 BOG, he might well be vulnerable to the consistent Emell (21222522). This 4yr old does seem to just find one too good for him, but he’s never beaten by far and the bulk of those races have been at Listed Class, so the step down could well see him shed the bridesmaid tag. This one still looks to be progressing nicely and could well land this at the 2/1 BOG on offer from Coral.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Lord Nevits / Emell @ 13/2 (6/4 & 2/1 : Coral)
Lord Nevits / Premio Loco @ 13/2 (6/4 & 2/1 : PP, BetFred & Stan James)
Jeanry / Emell @ 19/2 (5/2 & 2/1 : Coral)
Jeanry / Premio Loco @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : BetVictor)