Double Dutch, 27th February 2014
No successful double yesterday, but we did at least get ourselves back amongst the winners, as we correctly identified the first two home in the opening race. As it was Lord Nevits was a comfortable 14-lengths winner, which gave us great hope for the second leg.
Unfortunately, both our selections were caught out by the winner who got first run to win by 2.5 lengths ahead of the other four closely grouped runners (less than a length between 2nd and 5th), which ended our double hopes.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Lord Nevits: won at 7/4 (adv 6/4)
Jeanry: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
The forecast paid £7.19 here.
Premio Loco: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Emell: last of 5 at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
164 winning selections from 578 = 28.37%
55 winning bets in 153 days = 35.95%
P/L : +45.63pts (+15.11% ROI)
I feel we’re knocking on the door again, hopefully we’ll kick it open with these:
Argent Touch is a really consistent performer with finishes of 221222 in her last six runs, the latest of which was a narrow (neck) defeat here over course and distance nine days ago. Only Fuel Injection got the batter of her that day and he’s now a non-runner for this contest, leaving the way clear for our selection to resume winning ways. She ran off 65 in a Class 4 race last time out and today she’s off 60 and down a grade. All this points to her taking control at 9/4 BOG (BetVictor & Stan James).
The biggest danger is likely to come from the 2/1 BOG (SkyBet & Bet365) favourite Monsieur Lavene, who was third over this trip at Lingfield back in November. He was then gelded during a three-month break from the track before returning to win by two lengths 12 days ago (also over this 5f trip at Lingfield). He escapes any penalty for that win and looks pretty well treated for his handicap debut and having made all LTO will be difficult to beat if allowed an early or soft lead.
Comical Red absolutely hacked up at 7/2 for us here at DD just nine days ago when winning over course and distance by a good 20 lengths. The margin of victory could have been far bigger had he wanted to, having led from 3 out and was eased right down to a virtual walk on the run-in. A 7lb rise shouldn’t be anywhere near enough to stop him repeating the feat here today, and he’s still getting chunks of weight (from 13 to 29lbs inc. allowances) from the rest of the field. We’re not getting 7/2 like LTO but he still looks a good bet at 11/4 BOG with both BetVictor and Coral.
His main threat would appear to come from the possibly slightly underpriced 15/8 BOG favourite (Bet365) Smiles For Miles, who showed both consistency and a degree of promise in three hurdle races to get his opening handicap mark of 109. He ran very well on his handicap debut to finish second to the well-treated Harry’s Farewell at Kempton over 2m5f on heavy ground three weeks ago.
The step up to three miles might be what he needs to get his head in front and whilst I think he has a decent chance here, he’s my second preference.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Monsieur Lavene / Smiles For Miles @ 7.63/1 (2/1 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Monsieur Lavene / Comical Red @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Bet365 & PP)
Argent Touch / Smiles For Miles @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : Stan James)
Argent Touch / Comical Red @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)