Double Dutch, 28th February 2014
Another symmetrical losing day yesterday I’m afraid. We found one too good in both of our selected races and had to settle for second and third in both contests. Close, but not close enough.
Argent Touch was only beaten by three parts of a length at Southwell with Monsieur Lavene a further 1.25 lengths back in third. The market had agreed with us and backed the runner-up into 7/4 favouritism.
In race 2, our main selection Comical Red led until the last hurdle, but was beaten by 3.5 lengths on the run in, having been sent off as the 15/8 fav in from our huge 11/4 advice. Smiles For Miles travelled well but was badly outpaced late on and was another 12 lengths back in third.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Argent Touch: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Monsieur Lavene: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Comical Red: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 11/4)
Emell: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
164 winning selections from 582 = 28.19%
55 winning bets in 154 days = 35.71%
P/L : +43.63pts (+14.35% ROI)
I’l be looking to tur those placers into winners today starting with the:
Where the defection of two of the main protagonists (Great Link & Hawaii Five Nil) has hopefully turned a once competitive-looking race into a two-horse shootout between Whispering Harry and Minella Reception, with both of them obviously shorter in price than earlier, courtesy of the two notable withdrawals.
Whispering Harry is currently the 9/4 BOG favourite and comes here in good nick, having finished 3213 in his last four races over the past two months. He gets in here off a good weight, receiving between 2 and 10 pounds from his rivals, which might prove vital on such testing ground. Incidentally, trainer Henry Oliver has saddled up 7 winners from his 17 handicappers priced below 4/1, a 41.2% strike rate which has produced 12.15pts profit to date, an ROI of 71.5%.
Minella Reception, conversely, carries top weight here today, but you can be sure of him giving a decent account of himself on heavy ground. Trainer Rebecca Curtis’ horse tend to perform really well in the mud and this one is no exception with a 1251 record on such going. He might well be 2lbs worse off with Daveron today, despite only winning by a head when they met at Ludlow LTO, but our selection absolutely flattened the last hurdle and won have won by much further had he not done so.
My two for this race might well decide to take it on from the front quite early and if that happens, they’ll be difficult to peg back with my slight preference being for Minella Reception at 3/1 BOG with betfred.
Huzzah comes here seeking a course hat-trick under Ali Rawlinson within the space of three weeks after comfortable victories over 7f and 9.5f, the latest of which was a 4-lengths win eight days ago. The main question waiting to be answered is how the horse handles the extra 2.5 furlongs from last time out. He shaped like he had plenty in the tank on his latest run and if truth be told not many of the runners here have much form over today’s trip.
One of the deciding factors in these apprentice jockeys’ handicaps is the ability of the jockey themselves and in Ali Rawlinson, we’ve one of the best of the current crop. He rides well here at Wolverhampton and has a good record on Mick Appleby’s horses and if things go to plan, the 9/4 BOG on offer from BetVictor and Hills might look massive this evening.
Of his rivals, Grandiloquent looks interesting on paper racing off a mark some 27lbs lower than when he last won, but that was 17 races and almost two years ago and combine that with his 0/4 (7646) record here at Wolverhampton, you’d have to leave him alone.
The one I will take to oppose Huzzah is 7/2 BOG shot Fair Breeze who seems to be coming into some decent form again. He finished second here when beaten by Waving over 1m6f almost four weeks ago. Waving was ridden by Ali Rawlinson that day and that horse has gone on to win his next three outings too, which makes Fair Breeze‘s defeat at 18/1 look very good. Fair Breeze then dropped back to today’s trip to win over course and distance eleven days ago, staying on strongly to win by a length and a half.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Whispering Harry / Huzzah @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Whispering Harry / Fair Breeze @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Bet365 & Stan James)
Minella Reception / Huzzah @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor & Hills)
Minella Reception / Fair Breeze @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 100/30 : BetFred)