Stat of the Day, 28th February 2014
Join The Navy may well have been beaten by a head yesterday, but I just have to say that I thought upcoming jockey Kieron Edgar rode a brilliant race and came so close to pulling off what looked, for most of the race, an unlikely victory.
I don’t know whether it was tactics or a result of the horse’s reluctance to run, but our selection was well detached from the field for the best part of two miles, but these top weight stayed on strongly to such a point that he was level with the eventual winner at the last.
Maybe the opposing jockey rode out a slightly better finish or maybe the other horse was just a little bit quicker, but we got a very canny ride for our money. I know a 7/2 (from 4/1 advised) runner-up doesn’t put meat on the table, but I enjoyed watching it nevertheless.
However, we’re in the business of finding winners, so let’s head to the West Midlands this evening for the…
Trainer Marco Botti’s record at Wolverhampton is very good…
Since the start of 2008:
91 winners from 432 runners = a 21.06% strike rate and the 88.82pts profit = 20.6% ROI.
43/199 in handicaps = 21.6% SR for 57.2pts (+28.7% ROI)
7/31 (22.6% SR) for 11.4pts (+36.7% ROI) at Classes 1 or 2.
Whilst, more recently ie since January 2012: 49 winners from 205 runners = a 23.9% strike rate and the 49.13pts profit = 23.97% ROI and Marco has just the one runner on this evening’s card in the shape of the 4 yr old bay filly Magika, who will be ridden by Andrea Atzeni for this contest.
Andrea also has a decent record here at Dunstall Park, winning 40 of the 281 (14.3% SR) handicap events he has competed in, returning level stakes profits of some 101.74pts (+36.2% ROI) since 2008, whilst the figures from more recent times read 12/100 since the start of 2012 for 63.5pts profit.
When Messrs Botti & Atzeni team up here, they have an 18.5% strike rate (19/103) producing an ROI of 47.4% courtesy of 48.8pts profit from level stakes. They have excelled in handicap events like todays with 12 winners from 47 (25.5% SR) for 40.83pts (+86.9% ROI) profit.
Since Marco Botti only has one runner here, the jockey/trainer combination can only be seen the once this evening and in Magika, there’s an excellent chance of improving those figures. In her 14 starts to date, she has won four times and been placed on two other occasions. Her 28.6% win strike rate has yielded 4.12pts to date (+29.4% ROI) with three of her unplaced runs coming at odds of 20/1 or higher.
Her other 11 runs have all been at under 10/1, where her 4/11 (36.4% SR) record looks very good indeed and the corresponding 7.12pts profit produces a healthy 64.7% return on stakes. She has won three of her last five starts and her record here at Wolverhampton reads 1114 (2 wins over C&D) and when Andrea Atzeni has ridden her in the past the form line looks like this: 14321.
All of which means I’d expect Magika to be there or thereabouts in this competitive contest this evening, but she’s not actually that well fancied this morning in the markets with prices ranging from 5/1 to 7/1 at 9.00am. I expected her to be around the 5/1 mark, if I’m honest, so I’m taking the cautious approach of a 0.5pts E/W bet at 7/1 BOG on Magika this evening. I’ve gone with BetVictor for my bet, but Hills and Coral are both offering the same price, as you’ll see for yourself when you…