Stat of the Day, 1st March 2014
Dydd Gwyl Dewi Sant hapus to our Welsh readers as we enter the new month.
February didn’t exactly go out with a bang yesterday after Magika failed to make the frame. He was outpaced around the final bend and although Andrea Atzeni did his best to drive him home and he was indeed staying on well at the finish, fourth place was the best we could muster.
We backed him at 7/1 BOG, some of you got 15/2 and we’d gone E/W, in the end we missed out on a return by three parts of a length, but at an SP of 5/1, we were at least holding some value.
Back to Scotland for some chase action today in the…
Trainer Stuart Coltherd might not have the most prolific strike rate, but since the start of 2011, he has been very profitable to follow indeed.
For the 2011/14 period:
30 winners from 251 = 11.95% SR for 215.9pts (+86% ROI) profits.
With an 8/1 cap: 21/78 = 26.9% SR for 63.4pts (+81.3% ROI)
On Good to Soft / Soft ground: 16/120 = 13.33% SR for 118.4pts (+98.7% ROI)
And on good to soft / soft with an 8/1 cap: 11/38 = 28.95% for 34.3pts (+90.2% ROI)
His horses seem to perform best when asked to compete at trips of 2m2f or further, but not as far as 3 miles and if we apply this distance filter to the original 30/251 stat above we get:
2011 to 2014: 13/89 = 14.6% SR for 211.1pts (+237.1% ROI)
Capped at 8/1: 8/24 = 33.33% SR for 31.55pts (+131.5% ROI)
On Good to Soft / Soft: 9/43 = 20.9% SR for 183.04pts (+425.7% ROI)
And on good to soft / soft capped at 8/1: 5/10 = 50% SR for 21.93pts (+219.3% ROI)
I appreciate there’s a lot of numbers there, but even if we don’t get a winner today, Stuart Coltherd is one to watch based on all those stats.
He actually has four runners here today at a track where he’s 9/54 for 91pts in the same time frame as above, but the one that fits all the criteria I’ve listed is Sharney Sike.
Sharney Sike is a lightly raced 8yr old (just six starts to date) who has a record of 114 over fences, having won both his first two attempts on good, then soft ground. Both victories were ridden by today’s 7lb claimer Daragh Bourke who is 2 from 2 on the horse.
He may only have finished fourth last time out, but that was a step up in class and also on heavy ground with a new (to him!) jockey on board, so I’m happy to disregard that run and I expect him to continue his previous progress over fences.
He has been dropped 2lbs for that run, so he’s effectively 9lbs better off today and dropping in class. This allied to the renewal of his partnership with Daragh Bourke lead me to expect another decent run from him, so he’s my pick today.
The overnight tissues led me to expect a bet in the region of 3/1 to 5/1, but Stan James are currently pricing him up at 7/1 BOG, so I’m taking the cautious approach with a 0.5pts E/W bet on Sharney Sike at 7/1 BOG with Stan James, for a win will still return 4.2pts profit (mid-tissue) and we’ve the insurance of the place bet.
All the other firms price can be seen if you just…
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Here is today’s racecard!
PS No SotD tomorrow, but I’ll be back on Monday!