Double Dutch, 3rd March 2014
No double joy on Saturday, but another decent-priced winner as Jumps Road stayed on well to take advantage of some late carnage which saw half of the six-runner field disappear at once.
His 13/2 win meant we’d a chance of a bumper payout, but Drop Out Joe could only manage a runner-up slot and the 23/1 double was gone!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Jumps Road: won at 13/2 (adv 13/2)
Tiqris: BD at 11/8 (adv 15/8)
Drop Out Joe: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Hartforth: u/p at 6/1 (adv 5/1)
Results to date:
166 winning selections from 590 = 28.14%
55 winning bets in 156 days = 35.26%
P/L : +39.63pts (+13.60% ROI)
It might sound a little churlish to complain that our profits are now below 40pts, so let’s get ourselves back towards where we want to be with these today:
I would expect this contest to revolve around the two dual course and distance winners Volito and Temple Road.
Volito comes here seeking a hat-trick after landing back to back wins over C&D in the space of three days, the latest of which was 10 days ago. Prior to that run, he had been knocking on the door with a string of good performances, finishing in the frame in nine of his previous twelve starts since last July. That run of consistency in defeat meant his mark never really moved, so he was already running at the same level.
He is, however raised 4lbs for his latest effort, but Jack Garrity’s back in the saddle today after missing out last time around and his 7lb claim could prove decisive today. Volito can currently be backed at 3/1 BOG with Coral
A 5/2 BOG price is currently being offered about Temple Road, who also has two C&D wins to his name and he looked like he was getting back to his best when finishing third here over C&D 16 days ago. He hasn’t actually won a race for 13 months, with his last victory also a C&D win in February 2013. He won off a mark of 67 that day and was immediately raised to 74 and has been in the grip of the assessor since.
He was down to a more workable mark of 69 last time out and finished strongly to make the frame. Another similar run today might just be enough, especially as this is a step up in class for Volito.
Mill I Am has already won twice here at Kempton this year and drops down a furlong to try to compensate for a 5lb rise in the weights, but she generally has plenty of early speed which will give her a great chance of landing a weaker race than those she has been contesting of late. Jockey Adam Beschizza has only started riding her recently and he’s going to be trying to improve his own 2 from 3 record aboard this horse today.
The form looks solid from Mill I Am‘s last run/win here 18 days ago when she was 1.75 lengths ahead of Prohibition who turned back out and won at Wolverhampton a week later. The third placed horse at Kempton that day, Bubbly Bailey, has also run and won since that contest: scoring by a length and a half over today’s course and distance four days ago. If the form stands up, we could be looking at a 3/1 BOG winner in this one.
Harvest Mist, however, will make sure she doesn’t have it all her own way and at a similar 3/1 BOG price, looks set to make this an interesting contest. She, herself, has some decent runs under her belt at this 6f trip of late and was third last time out at Lingfield, when beaten by less than two lengths. Prior to that, she went down narrowly over today’s course and distance when getting to within half a length of the much-stronger Welsh Sunrise, who was subsequently only beaten by a nose here stepping up in class last Friday.
If Harvest Mist can run as well as she did here in that defeat to Welsh Sunrise, that could just about be enough today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Volito / Mill I Am @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : Coral)
Volito / Harvest Mist @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : BetVictor & Coral)
Temple Road / Mill I Am @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Boylesports)
Temple Road / Harvest Mist @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : generally)