Double Dutch, 4th March 2014
More crossbar rattling yesterday, as the results were eerily reminiscent of Saturday’s. On Saturday we had Jumps Road’s victory let down by a runner-up in race 2 and yesterday we suffered the fate with a solitary winner from Temple Road. Even the names are similar.
Mill I Am did her level best to cope with a drop in trip and a hike in weight and she was staying on strongly at the finish, but failed by just half a length in her efforts to catch the leader, denying us a return to winning ways with a 13/1 double.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Temple Road: won at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Volito: 3rd at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Mill I Am: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 3/1)
Harvest Mist: 4th at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
167 winning selections from 594 = 28.11%
55 winning bets in 157 days = 35.03%
P/L : +37.63pts (+12.14% ROI)
Despite our recent losing run, we’re still in a pretty healthy position. That said, I’d really like two winners today from these:
Both Rhymers Stone (2 wins from 3) and Light The City (3 wins and 2 places from 9 runs) are proven on soft ground and look the most likely to succeed here today.
Rhymers Stone was a soft ground winner over course and distance on his last visit here in December and despite a step up in class and a 7lb weight rise, he ran very creditably in a 7-length defeat at Ayr LTO. The ground was much heavier there and he was only beaten by one other horse. Trainer Lucinda Russell has an excellent record with soft ground runners here at Newcastle and at a generally available 5/2 BOG, this could the latest in a string of winners at this track for her.
Light The City, however, will ensure he doesn’t get all his own way and is a horse who loves the soft ground and comes here both fit and in good form after three runs on the All-Weather. He won over 1m3f and was a close second over 1m4f, so speed between hurdles won’t be an issue. Prior to those outings, he was 121 on soft ground over hurdles in December and looks set for another bold run at 11/4 BOG (Stan James) despite conceding weight all round.
Trainer Vic Dartnall has a good record with horses making their handicap debut and Rugged Jack could well be another such winner here.
With just 5 starts to date, he’s unexposed and has shown promise in his runs previously. He won a soft ground bumper on debut at Uttoxeter in mid-December and has since twice manage to finish second on heavy ground, so today’s mud shouldn’t trouble him unduly. He seems very fairly treated off an opening mark of 99 and as this is a conditional jockeys’ race, it’s pleasing to see one of the better ones (Conor Shoemark) in the saddle. Rugged Jack has a great chance of a debut handicap win here at a generally available 9/4 BOG.
The consistent, if winless in 16 starts, Revaader is most likely to be the danger in what looks, on paper at least, a pretty poor contest. Despite such a long losing run to open her career, she has been running better of late as finishes of 3232 since Christmas will show. All four runs have been on soft (once) or heavy ground (3 runs) and she was last seen when finishing second over course and distance here 11 days ago.
That result was probably as good as could have been expected up against a 1/6 David Pipe favourite, but she ran to within two lengths of the winner that day and if things fall her way, today could be the day Revaader breaks her duck at 2/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Light The City / Revaader @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Light The City / Rugged Jack @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Rhymers Stone / Revaader @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Rhymers Stone / Rugged Jack @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : generally)