Stat of the Day, 5th March 2014
It was a good day for SotD and a very good day for the Gardner family at Exeter on Tuesday. Not only did Lucy ride our selection, Flying Award, to victory in the Devon National at 9/2 (we were on at 5.4/1 after a 10% deduction), their only other runner at the meeting, Here’s Herbie was a 10-length winner of the opener.
Based on the stats used to find yesterday’s SotD, I had a sneaky couple of shillings on at 4/1 BOG and now wish I’d got the 32/1 double, like some of you did!
It felt good to break the 444 cycle, but no resting on laurels, I’d like another winner. To this end, we’re off to tackle the last race of the day, the…
Where Fleetwoodsands will attempt to complete back to back course and distance wins here within 6 days for trainer David Evans.
The omens for this are good, because over the last couple of years, David has sent out 40 LTO winners at odds of 8/1 or under, who had the CD suffix next to their name and these 40 runners have produced 13 winners. This 32.5% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 22.03pts, a return of 55% of stakes invested.
When lat seen here six days ago, Fleetwoodsands was a 14/1 winner by just half a length and he’s top weighed here now for his troubles. That might deter some people, but closer analysis of these lower quality, 4yo+, A/W handicaps show that top weighted male runners have a decent record coming off the back of a win last time out.
In fact, in UK A/W 4yo+ handicaps at Class 5 or lower ( I almost typed worse!) since 2009: top weighted males priced at 12/1 or under who won last time out, but by less than 3 lengths went on to win 52 of 193 follow-up races. this 27% strike rate has brought about level stakes profits of 59.14pts, an ROI of 30.6%.
Most of our SotD selections are priced at 6/1 or under, so if we just look at the horses priced accordingly from the 193 runners above, we get 48 winners from 162 (29.6% SR) for 48.6pts (+30% ROI) profit, which is pretty much in line with the overall picture.
Bearing top weight and a 6lb penalty for the earlier win won’t make this a stroll in the park, but this race represents a drop in class down to Class 7 level and in a race that looks pretty short of recent winners, our selection excepted, there’s little reason why he can’t go in again.
He actually seemed to be running with something to spare last time out and the draw has been kind to him here (drawn 1). I fancy him to take this one, but we’re not going to get 14/1 again, I’m afraid.
So, with the above in mind, Wednesday’s bet is a 1pt win bet on Fleetwoodsands at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, as they’re the only market open at present (9.15pm on Tuesday!). Should you prefer to wait for the other firms prices, or if you’re reading this on Wednesday, then you can avail yourself of all the current odds, if you just…