Stat of the Day, 6th March 2014
No action to report on from Wednesday after Fleetwoodsands was withdrawn from the contest around 9.30am, meaning we kept our powder dry.
They say that if at first you don’t succeed, then you really should try again. So, to that end, we’re staying where we are for the…
Since the start of 2011, if you’d backed each of Chris Dwyer’s handicappers priced at 12/1 or under on the All-Weather to a £10 level stake, you’d have risked a total of £1510 of your hard-earned cash. You would, however, now be sitting reading this article with £2332.40 in your pocket, if you’ve big pockets, that is!
That’s because 37 of the 151 (24.5% SR) runners were returned as winners and the ensuing 82.24pts profit represents a very healthy 54.5% increase in the betting bank.
More recently (and possibly more relevant) is his yard’s form in these events since the start of 2013 and the numbers look good trust me. In fact 26 winners from 93 is an excellent 28% strike rate and the ensuing 73.4pts profit from those runners is the equivalent of almost 79% of the total stakes.
From the above 26/93 over the last 14 months and a few days, the record here at Kempton is 5/12 (41.7%) for 29.66pts (+247.2% ROI) and if we look closer, we see that he had no runners here last year until mid-August, so he’s 5/12 in almost 7 months and five of the last ten were winners.
So, let’s get on all his runners here on Thursday!
Unfortunately, he only has one horse entered, so by default Basil Berry is our selection today.
This horse comes here in good nick with a run of form since New Year’s Eve reading 31221 with the sum total of the three defeats only amounting to 4 lengths and he was most recently seen winning here at Kempton over course and distance a fortnight ago. He hit the front 3f from home that night and stayed on well to beat Chinotto and Swivel by 0.75 lengths and 1.25 lengths respectively.
Those two have since re-opposed each other and Swivel beat Chinotto by a length to win at Wolverhampton a week ago, so the form from the Kempton race looks reasonable enough. Basil Berry is raised 4lbs for his recent exploits, but it should be noted that his win over C&D here a fortnight ago was a Class 3 (London Mile Qualifier) contest and this is a weaker Class 4 affair and it is expected that the drop in class will more than compensate for the rise in weight.
In fact, over the 2011/14 period, when Chris Dwyer’s horses have dropped a class, they have won on 11 of 76 occasions, a strike rate of 14.5% with corresponding profits of 17.95pts, or 23.6% of stakes. Of those 76 runners, the record at 10/1 or under is 10/50 (20%SR) for 26.72pts, or 53.4% of stakes, whilst on the All-Weather those numbers read 8/28 (28.6% SR) for 32pts (+114.3% ROI) profit.
The market doesn’t seem to have too high a regard for his chances here and he’s currently available as high as 7/1 with Ladbrokes, who are non-BOG until 9.30am on race day, whilst both Bet365 and BetVictor are offering 13/2 BOG about this one. At those odds in a 6-horse race, I’m tempted to hedge my bets and go E/W, but they say that fortune favours the brave, don’t they?
I’m not sure whether this one will shorten in price or not, so I’m going to sacrifice half a point and take the insurance of BOG with a 1pt win bet on Basil Berry at 13/2 BOG with Bet365. If one of the other options suits you better or if you’d rather wait for Ladbrokes to go BOG, then just…