Stat of the Day, 7th March 2014
No glory, but no disgrace for Basil Berry on Thursday as he finished in third place, three lengths off the pace, after coming from well behind the pack at the 2 pole.
I’d taken 13/2 BOG with a view to him possibly drifting in price, but I was surprised to see him sent off as long as 10/1 and I did begin to wonder if an E/W bet night have been the way forward.
I don’t like “tipping” (and I use the word loosely!) losers, but I was almost relieved that he didn’t finish second, otherwise I’ve have had E/W egg on my face.
More all-weather action on Friday evening in the shape of the…
Trainer Mick Appleby has an excellent recent record in handicap contests here at Wolverhampton and since the start of 2012, his horses have won 22 of the 81 Wolverhampton handicaps they have contested when sent off at odds of 6/1 or under.
This 27.2% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 28pts to date, an ROI of 34.6% which the team will seek to improve with Thorpe Bay here today. This is a horse in good form, having won two and been runner-up twice in his last six outings and last raced just three days ago.
He was only beaten in to second place by half a length on Tuesday and not only does this look a slightly easier contest, he runs off the same competitive mark of 70, but talented claimer Ali Rawlinson takes the ride today, enabling them to take 7lbs off his back.
That very recent run gives us some more stat-based reassurance about the pick too, as I can tell you that Thorpe Bay fits perfectly into the following criteria:
In UK A/W handicaps up to 1m2f, males priced at 8/1 or under and who were beaten by less than 2 lengths at 8/1 or under within the last five days have won 56 races from 151 since the start of 2010. (And breathe! 😀 )
56/151 is an excellent 37.1% strike rate for quick returning losers and the 103.95pts level stakes profits from those winners represent a fantastic return equivalent to some 68.8% of stakes invested.
I’d have thought that another run like that on Tuesday alone would be enough to take this one, but the added bonus of a 7lb jockey claim should tip the balance in our favour, so I’m happy to place a 1pt win bet on Thorpe Bay at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor.
At the time I wrote this (9.45pm on Thursday evening), PP were matching that price, whilst he was 7/2 elsewhere. For a more exact overview of the prices…