Stat of the Day, 10th March 2014
Just as we had three consecutive fourth placed finishes a week ago, Hitchen’s defeat on Saturday was our third successive third place finish! The margin of defeat was just two necks as he came from a good way off the pace to attempt to defy the chunks of weight he was conceding to the rest of the field.
He was fairly motoring down the outside, but just couldn’t quite get to the leaders in a run that belied his 5/1 odds we’d taken. In fact, he was sent off at 7/2 SP, meaning that we’d got the value once again.
We made a decent 28% ROI profit last week and it would be nice to kick off Festival Week with a winner in the…
A dozen of Ian Williams’ 59 runners here at Stratford over the last five years have managed to win their races with the 20.3% strike rate generating 29.6pts profit from 1pt level stakes for a return of 50.2%.
And from those 59 runners, he had 10 winners (27.8%SR) from the 36 horses priced between 5/2 and 10/1 with the resultant 48pts profit representing some 133.3% of the original stakes invested.
Ian actually has five runners at the track today, but the one that interests me most from a statistical point of view is the quick-returning Fredo.
Fredo was a five lengths winner on Friday at Sandown over 2m 4.5f on soft ground and although this encounter is a 2m7f race, the way he was going away from the field in the closing stages suggests the step up in trip won’t be an issue. In fact he stays much further than this trip when required.
The ground shouldn’t be a concern either, he won on soft ground on Friday and his record on soft ground in the last four years reads 12151.
His quick return is also a positive for me, for chasers have historically performed well when turned out quickly after a win. If we look at horses in chases priced between evens and 8/1 running within five days of a win last time out, we see 130 victories from 385 runners, a strike rate of 33.8% yielding level stakes profits of 120.5pts or 31.3% of stakes invested.
The 5lb claiming jockey Robert McCarth is in the saddle today and trainer Ian Williams is very adept at utilising the claim system to the very best advantage and since the start of 2011, he has used a 5lb claimer on 79 horses with the 19 winners providing a more than satisfactory 24% strike rate and excellent profits of 58.1 pts (+73.6% ROI).
Today represents a tougher assignment than he faced on Saturday and since he is currently only third or fourth in the market, I could be excused for taking a cautious E/W approach and some of you might choose to do that, but I’m going to take advantage of a fairly attractive (to me, anyway) price by staking a 1pt win bet on Fredo on 6/1 BOG with BetVictor.
SkyBet and Ladbrokes (non-BOG until 9.30am, though) also go 6/1 BOG about Fredo, as you’ll see when you…