Double Dutch, 12th March 2014
A mixed bag for us at Sedgefield yesterday, which saw our double fail with neither of our two runners completing the second race.
This was a pity, after Tiny Dancer had beaten the bookies and his five rivals after a gutsy battling display. Paddy Brennan, who surprisingly had no Cheltenham rides yesterday, steered this one expertly to just get home in a fairly tight finish.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Tiny Dancer: won at 9/5 (adv 11/4)
Talkin Thomas: 3rd at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Ancient Times: fell at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Prince Blackthorn: PU at 7/2 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
177 winning selections from 622 = 28.46%
59 winning bets in 164 days = 35.98%
P/L : +47.64pts (+14.70% ROI)
Ladies Day / Day 2 at Cheltenham today, but finding one winner at the meeting is hard enough for most of us, never mind looking for two! So, I’ll give that a miss and focus on the All-Weather with the following:
Stoney Quine may well have only won three times in 15 starts, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. All three wins have come from nine A/W runs and all three have been in his last seven outings and all were here at Southwell where his record reads 14131, all between 5th November and 13th December last year. The last of those runs was his only effort over course and distance when he won by four lengths and could have won by more.
He was entitled to look a little rusty after a 7 weeks break when reappearing at Wolverhampton last month, but he’ll strip fitter for that run and a return to Southwell is a bonus. Trainer Keith Dalgleish has the best figures of all the trainers on show here today and jockey Tom Eaves also has a good record at the track. All of which points to a bit of value in his current 9/2 BOG price tag at Coral.
As a second choice, I was torn between Cascadia and Nick The Odds, but the latter (and 2/1 BOG favourite) was beaten in a 7f seller here last night and showed little fight late on. He looks vulnerable if reappearing again and asked to find an extra furlong.
Cascadia, on the other hand, was a handicap winner over course and distance six days ago and looks to have a good chance now dropped into selling class. This is a pretty moderate race that shouldn’t take too much winning and any repeat of last week’s run could well be enough at a decent price (for a 5-runner race, anyway!) of 5/1 BOG with Stan James.
Diplomatic is an 8-times course winner (from 29 starts) and has also won five times over tonight’s course and distance. He hasn’t run as well in his last three outings since being raised 3lbs after his last win (C&D here 8 weeks ago), but Adam Kirby was on board for that win and he’s back in the saddle tonight, which might just make a difference. The horse was 7th of 11 last time out, but wasn’t disgraced by any means. He didn’t get a clear run and was still only beaten by four lengths and if Adam can keep him a little closer to the action, tonight could be a return to winning ways at a generally available 5/2 BOG.
The most likely winner from th his rivals is the 9/4 BOG (Coral) favourite Tee It Up Tommo, who has already won three times over tonight’s trip and has been successful in three of his last five races. He’s another one who didn’t quite get the run of the race last time out, finishing 3 lengths adrift in fifth place at Lingfield over this trip and off tonight’s mark. There was enough in that run to suggest he’ll be a player here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Stoney Quine / Tee It Up Tommo @ 17.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : Coral)
Stoney Quine / Diplomatic @ 18.25/1 (9/2 & 5/2 : Coral)
Cascadia / Tee It Up Tommo @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : Stan James)
Cascadia / Diplomatic @ 20/1 (5/1 & 5/2 : Stan James)