Stat of the Day, 14th March 2014
No sort of a run from Fozy Moss on Thursday, after scrubbing along for a while, he was pulled up five out leaving us with a 1pt loss from our foray to the North East.
We didn’t even manage to beat the book either, as he was sent off at 11/2, slightly longer than our advised 5/1.
All-Weather action from “Leafy” next as we tackle a Class 5 handicap over 7 furlongs, shown on your interactive racecards as the…
Where I’m putting my money on Philip McBride’s Walk With An Angel, who is currently (11.00pm on Thursday!) available at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor and here are my thoughts behind the selection…
Firstly Philip is a trainer you can back blindly and still make a profit from and since the start of 2011 his record on the level is 46 winners from 311 (14.8% SR) for 98.82pts (+31.8% ROI) and 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 7.91pts (+22.6% ROI) here at Lingfield.
If we focus more on the kind of race we’re considering here, we can see that Mr McBride excels in what I call the winter A/W handicaps, ie the September to March months away from the main turf season, where the A/W is the main focus for flat runners.
In those months over the last 4 seasons, Philip has had 19 winners from 71 (26.8% SR) for 53.9pts (+75.9% ROI) profits from level stakes betting with a 6/18 record here at Lingfield producing an excellent 20.6pts (+114.3% ROI).
Those figures are, of course, based on all runners with no odds limit, but the results are still decent at lower more manageable odds as we can we can see here…
…when we consider that he has 15 winners from the 36 runners priced at 6/1 or under with that 41.7% strike rate bringing in a whopping 32.12pts profit, which represents 89.2% of all stakes invested. And from these 36 runners, we have a 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 10.82pts (+77.3% ROI) record here at Lingfield.
Walk With An Angel is Philip’s only runner today, so I’ve no decision to make here, but we should look at her chances anyway. She broke her duck in a 6f maiden at Kempton a fortnight ago and whilst the official result says she only won by half a length, the victory was far easier than that.
She took the lead inside the final furlong and then just did enough to hold off the favourite, something she’ll aim to repeat today. She looked to be getting stronger throughout the race and seemed to have plenty in reserve, suggesting that she’ll be well suited by this extra furlong here today.
Prior to that win at Kempton, she had finished a very creditable fourth over today’s course and distance when only beaten by a length and a quarter with the winner and third-placed horse both going on to win next time out (the runner-up Treasure Cay hasn’t reappeared yet). A run to that level might well be enough here today.
The potential fly in the ointment is the presence of a short-priced favourite in the shape of the three year old filly Chantrea who makes her handicap debut here. She’s highly likely to go off as an odds on favourite, but that actually gives me some hope, because there’s some merit in opposing certain favourites here at Lingfield.
Since the start of 2009, if you backed every female favourite in a Lingfield A/W handicap priced at 4/1 or shorter that had only one or less previous run in handicap company, then you’d have lost almost a third of your stake money.
In fact only 16 of 71 such favourites have won their races and that strike rate of just 22.5% is much lower than would be expected and a level stakes loss of 22.84pts represents 32.2% of the total stakes.
So, with the trainer’s stats suggesting we’ve a chance of a winner added to the poor performances of favourites here, I’m happy to place my 1pt win bet on Walk With An Angel at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor. Bet365 are currently offering 7/2 BOG and you can always…