Double Dutch, 14th March 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 14th March 2014

It was almost the perfect DD day yesterday as we found two winners from two races, both at longer odds than SP and we landed a forecast in race 2. Only getting the runner-up in the first event could have made the day any better.

The market was proved correct in both races, as the finishing order exactly mirrored the market, after Supa Seeker was well backed from our advised 5/1 into 9/4 at the off.

I’ve not mentioned the value in taking my morning prices recently, so yesterday was a stark reminder of the necessity to get on early and get on at BOG.

My double paid me 17/1, handsome rewards indeed, but those relying on industry SP were paid out at 5.8/1. Please, please, please don’t leave money on the table and walk away with just a third of your winnings.

Yesterday’s results were as follows:

Scots Gaelic: won at 11/10 (adv 2/1)
Great Link: 4th of 5 at 11/2 (adv 7/2)
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Supa Seeker: won at 9/4 (adv 5/1)
Huzzah: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 100/30)
The forecast paid £8.41 in this one

Results to date:
180 winning selections from 629 = 28.48%
61 winning bets in 166 days = 36.36%

Stakes: 328.00pts
Returns: 382.27pts

P/L : +54.27pts (+16.55% ROI)

It’s Gold Cup today at Cheltenham today and it would be rude to overlook the whole Festival, so we’re finally going to take a look, before setting out to Ireland!

3.20 Cheltenham:

Yes, the Gold Cup itself. I don’t often foray into such high quality races for DD, but I have done well in the past doing so. According to someone who has already forgotten more about racing than I already know (Mr Bisogno himself), this race is the closest you’ll get to a two-horse race at this year’s Festival and I’m happy to back his judgement here.

In his excellent Gold Cup Day racing preview, Matt sets out the reasoning behind backing Bobs Worth (9/4 BOG with BetFred) and Silviniaco Conti (Boylesports are offering 4/1 BOG) and whilst neither of us are taking anything for granted or belittling the claims of Last Instalment, but I’m just not convinced he’s better than either or both of the selections.

2/1 is short for a Gold Cup winner, I suppose, but I’m extremely confident of taking between 1.63pts and 2.5pts into race 2, which is the…

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8.45 Dundalk:

Home Secretary has a pretty reasonable-looking record on paper. He has been profitable to back blindly with 6 wins from 39 starts (15.4% SR) producing 13.34pts (+34.2% ROI) to date, but he tends to really come alive here at Dundalk. All six wins have been here at this track and all from the 24 runs at the 10.5f to 12f range. That 25% SR has brought backers over 28pts profit and he’s four from eight at 6/1 or under and he’s 4/12 over C&D.

He won here over course and distance last November off a mark of 66 and a subsequent rise in weight left him unable to compete in his three subsequent unplaced outings. He’s back to just a pound higher than his last win and with 3lb claimer Connor Hoban in the saddle today, he’s effectively very well treated to score again at 5/1 BOG with Coral.

Top weight and 7/2 BOG joint favourite The Ring Is King is the most likely to cause us problems tonight, if he runs as well as he did on his penultimate run six weeks ago. That night, the afore-mentioned Connor Hoban steered him to a narrow (neck) defeat in a rated race over course and distance and this is an easier contest on paper, at least. He was disappointing a week later when well fancied (3/1 fav) and was only able to finish 6th of 8 runners (beaten by 5.5 lengths), but he had been raised 6lbs for the previous C&D win.

He’s back down 4lbs tonight to carry just 2lbs more than his last win and in a weaker race, that mark should allow him to be competitive.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Bobs Worth / The Ring Is King @ 12.50/1 (2/1 & 7/2 : Hills)
Bobs Worth / Home Secretary @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : BetFred)
Silviniaco Conti / The Ring Is King @  19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Boylesports)
Silviniaco Conti / Home Secretary @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1 : Coral)

PS Hills are offering 20,000 bets of £10 per person at 4/1 on Bobs Worth from 10.00am. Not everyone will get on, which is why I haven’t used that price in my doubles.