Stat of the Day, 15th March 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th March 2014

Walk With An Angel was only beaten by less than a length and half on Friday, but such was the competitive nature of the race, he actually finished last of the five runners in a blanket finish.

It wasn’t a bad run by any means, but he was possibly just a shade too far off the pace on the final bend, although he was probably never going to be quick enough to win, despite staying on at the end.

He’ll win more races in the future, but will more than likely need to step up in trip to be more effective, as will hopefully be the case for us with our next selection who runs in the…

7.10 Wolverhampton:

Since the start of 2011, if you’d placed a £10 bet on all of Roger Varian’s runners priced at 12/1 or under in handicap contests, you’d currently be sitting on profits of £618.90, which would be an increase of 16.24% above your stakes. That’s because 76 (19.95% SR) of his 381 runners have won their races in that time frame.

And whilst it’s a very small sample size, his record here at Wolverhampton from those 381 runners reads as 6 winners from 18 for healthy profits of 20.16pts.

Roger has just one runner on a quiet Saturday and that’s the handicap debutant Jaahiez who comes here on the back of a maiden victory in only his third start.

After finishing third in two seven furlong maidens (here at Wolverhampton and also at Lingfield), he stepped up to a mile and stayed on well to get home by a short head and looks like he’ll want even further in the future. An extra half a furlong isn’t a massive extension in trip, but it might well make this more comfortable for him.

Roger Varian has a really good record with horses making their handicap debuts and since the start of 2011, 25 of his 108 handicap debutants priced at 12/1 or under have gone on to win at the first time of asking with that 23.15% strike rate generating 28.9pts profits, an ROI of 26.74% to date, of which the record here at Wolverhampton is 3/9 for 11.9pts profit.

Furthermore, if we looked at those handicap debutants who were stepping up in trip there were 58 of them priced at 8/1 or under, of which 16 (27.6% SR) were successful, producing level stakes profits of 30.1pts (+51.9% ROI), with the record here at Wolverhampton standing at 2 winners from 5 for 13.1pts profit.

This is by no means a penalty kick, but the fact that he’s potentially well-treated at bottom weight receiving up 15lbs from his rivals (8lb from the fav) means that there might still be some value in the current 9/4 BOG odds on offer.

That’s admittedly a little tight in SotD terms, but this is only a five-runner contest and in the last 14 months or so, 31 2nd favourites have triumphed in 112 all-weather handicap races, a strike rate of 27.7% giving rise to profits of 20.5pts, or 18.3% ROI.

And from those 112 runners, the stats from Wolverhampton are 10 winners from 32 (31.3% SR) for 8.13pts (+25.4% ROI)

So, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Jaahiez at 9/4 BOG and I’ve gone with SkyBet for this one, but the price is quite widely available and you can see what your favourite bookie is offering, if you just…

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