Stat of the Day, 17th March 2014
Another hard-luck story from Saturday, as Jaahiez had to be patient to wait for a gap to appear, before surging up the inside to take the lead deep within the final furlong. Unfortunately the short-priced favourite found a little bit more and “did us” by a head.
It was a gallant bid from the 5/2 (adv 9/4) shot who was actually sent off at a ridiculously high Betfair SP of 5.0 and traded at 1.01 in running, but the line didn’t quite come quick enough for him.
March has been told so far, I don’t dispute that, but we’re only 1.6pts down and nothing a couple of winners couldn’t fix. Today would be a good time to start with the…
Jockey John Fahy has a really good record on the All-Weather here at Kempton with a 13.4% strike achieved by winning 41 of his 307 rides to date. And if you’d placed a £10 win bet at Betfair SP (our closest approximation to BOG betting) on each of those runners, your £3070 stakes would now be standing at £4463, an increase of £1393 or 45.4% of the original outlay.
This of course, makes him a jockey to follow on this track and a quick scan of the declarations for today tells us he’s only got one ride booked in and I doubt he’s coming here for nothing! The horse he’ll be riding today is New Rich, who is not only trained by Eve Johnson Houghton, but he’s her only runner here today too.
EJH’s own record here at Kempton is worth noting, too. Since the start of 2011, she has had 39 runners sent off at 8/1 or under in A/W handicaps here at Kempton, of which 12 (30.8% SR) were winners, generating level stakes profits of 59.5pts, and ROI of 152.5%. It’s a fairly small sample size, for sure, but the profits are there for all to see.
From that 12/39 record here at Kempton, the figures returned with John Fahy in the saddle read as 5 winners from 11 (45.5% SR) for 28.7pts (+261.1& ROI) profit, which isn’t too shabby at all.
And the stats for both trainer, jockey and the combo have been helped by today’s runner, New Rich, who is a triple course and distance winner whose over all record over today’s track and trip reads 11531 with the last victory coming just 33 days ago, where he stayed on well to get home in a tight finish: the 5th placed horse was only a length behind!
He’s only up 2lbs for that win and a repeat of that run here in what looks a weaker race on paper, should be enough for him to improve his record and as one of only two runners in the race to have tasted victory this year, I’m happy to place a 1pt win bet on New Rich at 4/1 BOG with Bet 365. PP were offering 7/2 BOG at the time of press (2.00am!) and if you want to see all the other prices…