Stat of the Day, 18th March 2014
No joy from New Rich on Monday evening, despite putting up a reasonable show. Sent off as 7/2 favourite, slightly shorter than our advised 4/1 odds, he pulled quite hard in the early stages and had to be restrained for a while.
Entering the final furlong he was among a group of four with a chance of winning, before 8/1 shot Foie Gras swept down the outside, beating all four home!
Foie Gras quickened enough to put two lengths clear daylight between him and the closely grouped quartet who were with a length of each other: unfortunately for us, New Rich was the last home of that group, leaving us with a fifth place finish and the loss of a point.
March continues to be a struggle, but I hope to reverse recent form in Tuesday’s…
Where Joe Fanning will look to steer the USA-bred 4yr old filly Doldrums back into the winning enclosure on her first visit to Southwell.
Unless you’ve either been on Mars for the last couple of years or you haven’t taken much notice of the waffle I write between the race time above and the final advice at the bottom, then you’ll know that I (amongst others) have a thing about USA-bred horses here at Southwell.
But, they don’t all win! And there are a few microsystems out there relating to these horses, but many of them are quite complex, but I’ve a couple of things I’d like to share today…
1. Big field / small prize races ie USA-bred horses in races of eight or more runners competing for less than £4000.
In 2011/14: 79 winners at all odds from 490 runners = 16.12% Strike rate for 132.3pts profit (+27% ROI).
We don’t often go below 5/2 advised odds for SotD, so for 5/2 to 12/1 runners: 61/285 = 21.4% SR for 150.9pts (+52.9% ROI) profit.
And 5/2 to 8/1 (our optimal range): 52/217 (24% SR) for 91.8pts (+42.3% ROI) profit.
2. Young newcomers ie USA-bred horses aged 2 to 4 with less than 3 Southwell runs to their name and no more than one course victory.
In 2011/14: 64 winners from 263 runners = 24.3% SR for 146.25pts profit (+55.6% ROI)
3. Joe Fanning over longer trips.
In the same 2011/14 timeframe, Joe’s record in Southwell handicaps further than a mile in distance is 13 wins from 44 races at all odds.
This 29.55% strike rate has generated 26.6pts for an ROI of 60.5%, whilst those runners priced at 12/1 or under have won 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) for 39.15pts, or 139.8% of stakes invested.
Those are just three very simple stats pointing to our runner Doldrums, but when combined they do present a powerful case about a horse who has won twice on the all-weather, including one race at 1m4f.
She shouldn’t lack for stamina and her breeding suggests she’ll “get” the new service readily, so for me, it’s a 1pt win bet on Doldrums at 4/1 BOG with Bet365, which is half a point longer than the next best 7/2 BOG offered by three or four others at 6.30pm, as you’ll see when you…