Stat of the Day, 19th March 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2014

Doldrums lived up to his name yesterday when he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Joe Fanning booted him into a clear lead inside the last two furlongs and just as he looked set to coast home, he began to tread water and not only was he caught inside the final furlong, he ended up getting beaten by a length and a quarter.

He had attracted some support, backed into 7/2 from our advised 4/1, but this just means a few more if us got our fingers burnt. It’s often hard to gauge a race on TV, especially on the sand at Southwell, but he really did look like he was in slow motion on the run-in.

Off to the North-West for some jumps action for Wednesday and the…

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2.10 Haydock:

Considering Caroline Bailey has sent out almost 1,000 runners in her training career, it strikes me as odd that in all that time, she has been only represented on sixteen occasions here. You could understand her shunning the place if her horses didn’t run well here, but 8 of the 16 have won and produced 39.8pts (+248.9% ROI) profit to date.

In chase events here at Haydock, her record reads six wins from thirteen  (46.2% SR) for 17.93pts (+137.9% ROI) which isn’t too shabby either.

In a rare occurrence, Caroline has sent three horses here today, two of which run in chases and whilst Noble Legend is a former course and distance winner, he looks up against it in the 4.15 race, but will still hold decent E/W claims at 13/2 BOG with Hills. Her third runner, Queen Olivia, looks like she’s just making the numbers up in the 4.50 race, which leaves us with Carli King, currently (7.00pm on Tuesday) a 9/2 BOG shot with BetVictor.

Carli King comes here on the back of two wins in his last three outings, including a victory at Leicester last time out, just three weeks ago. Three weeks seems a long enough break for this horse who has certainly been kept busy since making his debut 20 weeks ago: today will be his eighth start.

Mrs Bailey has a good record in recent years with her chasers turned back out within 6 weeks of a win. In fact since 2010, nine of her nineteen handicap chasers running within 45 days of a win LTO went on to record back to back successes. None of them were priced above 10/1, so there was no big winner to skew the 29.25pts (+153.95% ROI) profits accrued via that 47.4% strike rate.

Regular jockey Tom Messenger is on board today upon a horse who has finished ion the first four each time he has run, whilst Tom has a 25% strike rate on Caroline’s chasers priced at 6/1 or under.

There’s enough there for me to be satisfied with a 1pt win bet on Carli King at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor. To see what the other firms are offering, simply…

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