Double Dutch, 19th March 2014
Whiskey Ridge made a bold attempt to make all at Wetherby yesterday, but just couldn’t quite see the job through. He was collared very late on and eventually beaten by just half a length and that was all that came between us and a very nice 10/1 double.
This would have been the case after I managed to call race 2 almost perfectly. I had a good feeling about Day Star Lad and despite him being weak in the market (3/1 from our 9/4 advisory), he powered home to win by 7 lengths. I also suggested that Evacusafe Lady was too long at 7/1 and so it proved, as she was eventually sent off as the 9/4 favourite!
Unfortunately she relinquished the runner-up spot in the closing stages, denying me the consolation prize of the forecast.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Whiskey Ridge: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Alpha One: PU at 6/1 (adv 11/4)
Day Star Lad: won at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Evacusafe Lady: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 7/1)
Results to date:
185 winning selections from 648 = 28.55%
62 winning bets in 170 days = 36.47%
P/L : +51.15pts (+15.22% ROI)
The profits and the ROI are dipping towards the 50pts and 15% barriers and I’m keep to stop that happening. Hopefully these will do the trick…
Handsome Buddy and Get Ready To Go are the two runners with proven form over this trip, having both made the frame over course and distance in the past.
Get Ready To Go was second here over C&D a year ago and ran well to finish 4th last time out at Musselburgh. That was five weeks ago and his first run for his new trainer Richard Ford. It was also his first run after a nine-month break, so he ‘s entitled to have needed the run and can reasonably be expected to improve for it. His trainer is one of those you can back blindly at sub-12/1 odds and still make money, so at 100/30 BOG today, this one is of interest, especially as 3lb claimer Harry Challoner (no mug, by any means) effectively makes this horse the bottom weight here in what might become a bit of a slog.
Also trading at 100/30 BOG, I have a slight preference, however, for Handsome Buddy. The raw data of a 15-lengths defeat here over course and distance needs further analysis. He was running from outside the handicap at 33/1 and decided he didn’t want to go! Once his jockey got him moving, he was already a good dozen or so lengths behind the pack and had to play catch up.
He quite likely expended more energy in the opening stages of the race than was planned, but he stayed on strongly to grab third place late on and he went into my notebook for the way he travelled. Peter Carberry is back on board today for a second time and I’m sure he’ll not let the horse play up this time. I’m aware of the risks of backing horses that are reluctant to race, but if he gets away at the first time of asking, he’ll be difficult to beat.
Roger Varian has a 22.7% strike rate with handicap debutants over the last four years, producing a similar ROI from backing them and this looks an ideal introduction to handicap racing for Khatiba, who won a maiden on debut over today’s course and distance six weeks ago. She stayed on well to beat Joie de Reve by three parts of a length that day and the latter reappeared last Friday evening at Wolverhampton and was a 7 lengths winner over this trip. If the form holds out, then 15/8 BOG (Stan James & SkyBet) might be a decent offering.
The obvious and visible danger is Crowdmania, who is a changed beast in more ways than one this year. He was very disappointing in seven unplaced efforts on the Flat last year as a 2yr old, but he was gelded over the autumn and is now running well on the A/W. He returned from a break of almost 4 months to run at Lingfield for his A/W debut and was only headed on the line for a short head defeat over a mile. He then dropped to 7f and won at Wolverhampton, before reverting to the Lingfield mile last Friday. He made all to win by 3.5 lengths there and comes here seeking a hat-trick. There’ll be little to choose between the two and the bookies feel the same way, as he’s currently priced up at a best price of 2/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Handsome Buddy / Khatiba @ 10.92/1 (100/30 & 7/4 : BetFred)
Handsome Buddy / Crowdmania @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Boylesports & Betfair Sportsbook)
Get Ready To Go / Khatiba @ 11.46/1 (100/30 & 15/8 : Stan James)
Get Ready To Go / Crowdmania @ 12/1 (100/30 & 2/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)