Double Dutch, 20th March 2014
I mentioned yesterday that I was keen to stop the profit levels and the ROI dropping below the 50pts and 15% marks respectively. Well, things couldn’t have gone much better for us than yesterday.
Two races, two winners and two runners-up. Both winners shortened in price, so we’d got the best available thanks to BOG and the icing on top of our 11/1 double was the bonus of two forecasts/exactas.
Now, hands up who also did the forecast double? I certainly didn’t, but 54/1 would have been very nice indeed.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Handsome Buddy: won at 11/4 (adv 100/30)
Get Ready To Go: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 100/30)
(£12.97 Forecast / £10.00 Exacta here)
Crowdmania: won at 11/10 (adv 2/1)
Khatiba: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 15/8)
(£4.22 Forecast / £5.40 Exacta here)
Results to date:
187 winning selections from 652 = 28.68%
63 winning bets in 171 days = 36.84%
P/L : +55.15pts (+16.32% ROI)
The next objective is to build on yesterday’s good day and kick on towards the 60pt profit mark…
Byron Gala hasn’t won any of his five starts to date yet, but has been knocking on the door of late (career record 62322 and 232 here at Wolverhampton). he looked set to shed his maiden tag last time out when clear inside the final furlong at Kempton three weeks ago. He wandered around late on, went right and got collared in the final 50 yards. Marco Botti is fitting him with blinkers for the first time today and if they help keep him straight, then he could be a good bet at the 2/1 BOG generally available.
Zamra is 212 in her last three starts and represents James Tate who has a 26% strike rate in the last couple of years and won this very race last year with another filly. She was only beaten by a very well treated 4/7 hotpot last time out on her handicap debut. If she runs to the same level today, her team could well be celebrating a handy 9/4 BOG victory here.
An opening handicap mark of 118 might look a little punitive for Bobble Boru, but this 6yr old mare has won three of her last four starts. But, after just three starts over hurdles, she’s still unexposed in this sphere of racing and looks set for another big run. Her handlers think she’s a decent prospect, as an entry in the Mares’ Final at Newbury would tend to suggest. It looks like this race has been picked out specially for her to get a handicap win under her belt and I’d expect her to do that at 9/4 BOG (most places) today.
She only faces three rivals here today and Bollin Judith looks to be making up the numbers (watch her win at 16/1 BOG now!), which leaves me with a straight choice between Loyaute and Springinherstep. There’s not much between the pair really, but the fact that the 7/4 BOG favourite has struggled in each of her three handicap outings to date, is now fitted with a hood for the first time and might also need a run after a 14-week break means I’m turning to the better value Loyaute as my backup plan.
Loyaute was, admittedly, disappointing when finishing 4th last time out at Exeter, but it might pay to recall that in her previous run, she beat Boltimore Rock by almost 4 lengths over today’s trip and BR is 2/2 since then, including Grade 3 success at Sandown 12 days ago. Loyaute acts well on today’s better ground and if she puts in another run like that penultimate start, she could upset the odds with a win at 11/4 BOG (PP & Betfair Sportsbook)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Byron Gala / Bobble Boru @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Byron Gala / Loyaute @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : PP)
Zamra / Bobble Boru @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor & Coral)
Zamra / Loyaute @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : PP)