Stat of the Day, 20th March 2014
It was a poor day for Caroline Bailey and ultimately ourselves at Haydock yesterday, as all three of her runners finished fifth in their respective races.
We’d backed Carli King at 9/2 and although he opened up on course at 13/2, he was sent off at the same price as we’d advised, but those backing him were left disappointed by the way he faded from contention in the closing stages of the race.
No excuses, no hiding places from me, despite my recent run of poor results and I aim to get back on the winning trail in Thursday’s…
Where I’m backing Joe Fanning’s mount Loud at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor in this Class 5 handicap over six furlongs this afternoon.
Loud comes here on the back of a win over 7f at Southwell eight days ago when he finished the best part of two lengths ahead of course specialist Sofia’s Number One. He’s raised six pounds for that effort and will attempt to overcome the extra weight by dropping down to today’s shorter trip.
The penalty for that win makes him top weight here, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he can’t/won’t win again this afternoon. In fact, top weighted males in UK all-weather 4yo+ handicaps have fared very well indeed running on the back of a win last time out.
All told, there has been 121 such runners, yielding 33 winners (27.3% SR) and 58pts profit, or the equivalent of 47.9% of all stakes invested upon these runners.
I’m also not too concerned about him dropping back in trip here, as he won at 6f on his racing debut five starts ago, hopefully proving he’ll be sharp enough to take this today.
I take the booking of Joe Fanning as a positive sign here, as Joe has a really good record over the shorter trips on the All-Weather here at Wolverhampton. Research tells me that over the last four years, Joe has won 30 of 111 races here at Wolverhampton in races of a mile in length or shorter when the horse was priced at 8/1 or under.
This 27% strike rate has generated very healthy level stakes profits of 77.7pts which is an ROI of some 70% and incidentally Joe is 3/7 for 11.8pts profit on those top weighted males I mentioned earlier.
It won’t be a walkover today and Point North is sure to mount a challenge to our selection, but his presence will at least ensure we get a reasonable price about our selection. So, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Loud at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor and you can get the same price at Hills, whilst some firms are already as low as 5/2. All of this information is freely available when you…