Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2014
Another head-scratchingly poor display from a well-fancied runner yesterday as 5/2 shot (slight drift from our 9/4 advisory) Dormello Mo only managed to beat one of his five rivals home.
The fact he was beaten by a well-backed 5/4 favourite wasn’t a surprise, but the manner of his 15 lengths defeat left me a little nonplussed. He folded quite tamely late on and seemed a little disinterested in the closing stages. Plenty for the Ditcheat team to work on, I think.
I don’t say any of the above because we lost and we’re on a poor run of form, it’s just the way I saw it and as for my form, I’m sure it will return soon enough, such is the cyclical nature of any “tipping” (oh, how I hate that word!) service.
Off to Scotland in search of a winner today in the…
Since the start of 2011 trainer Dianne Sayer has had 489 entrants in NH handicap contests, a pretty decent sample size. And to think that she’s achieved a 13.5% strike rate (via 66 winners) is very good going from so many horses. 1 in 7 isn’t bad at the best of times, but to repeat that 66 times over is brilliant.
And as such is normally the case, she’s profitable to back blindly, as level stakes profits of 162.5pts and an ROI of 33.2% will testify. Now these are very healthy figures, but perhaps they’re skewed by a couple of big-priced winners?
Closer inspection says no. If we revert to our “general default setting” of the 13/8 to 6/1 price range (we do go outside those odds for SotD, of course, but most of our selections run within these parameters), we see that the figures are actually better, not worse. 35 winners from 136 runners is a strike rate of 25.7%, almost double the initial stats and these 35 winners have brought about a 40.5% return on stakes invested, courtesy of 54.7pts profit.
From that 35/136 record, the numbers for Mrs Sayers’ odds-restricted runners here at Kelso are 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 14.25pts (+79.2% ROI), very nice indeed.
Newdane Dancer has been running really well of late with results of 1312 in his last four outings spread over a 12-week period stretching back to 28th December last year and although he has been raised 3lbs from his latest run, he stands a good chance of securing a third win on five here today.
He stayed on well to take second place in a big field at Catterick 17 days ago and shaped as though he’s have been better suited by today’s extra furlong and a half and this is (on paper, at least!) a weaker looking affair with less rivals to beat.
It’s also interesting to note that his recent four-race run of form has coincided with being teamed up with 5lb claiming jockey Colm McCormack who will be keen to maintain his 4/4 place record on this horse. Which brings me nicely to another little stat regarding the trainer Mrs Dianne Sayer.
A much smaller sample size than the stat I opened with (just 73 runners this time), but in the same 2011-14 timeline, her horses have 20.6% of their races when ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs in a NH handicap race. To save you doing the maths, that’s 15 winners from 73 all priced below 10/1. And the resultant profits of 42.9pts or 58.8% of stakes are worth having too.
So, we’ve a trainer who you can back blindly at all odds and even more so at shorter odds. She’s also got a good record here at Kelso in handicap contests and has a horse in great form with a burgeoning relationship with his 5lb claimer jockey, the type of rider his trainer excels with. What could possibly go wrong? 😀
Personally, I don’t think there’s a better horse in the race and despite a 3lb rise, our selection is still quite low in the weights here and carries 10lbs less than his two most likely rivals at the head of the market. All of which leads me to a 1pt win bet on Newdane Dancer at 9/2 BOG with Bet365. That’s easily the best of the prices currently on offer, but you can check them out for yourself, if you just…