Double Dutch, 24th March 2014
I had a bad day on Saturday with my own personal betting and my SotD pick ran a stinker, so it was almost inevitable that the DD would go down the pan and as sure as night follows day, that’s how things went.
When you’ve four runners across two races and the best you can do in race 1 is 4th & 5th in a six-horse race, you just know it’s not your day. And whilst the 2nd & 3rd in race two might look better on paper, those horses were beaten by 15l and 21l respectively.
A rare no-winners day for us, but today is another opportunity…
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Munsarim: 4th of 6 at 7/2 (adv 5/1)
Siam Gwalia: 5th at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Sands Cove: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Dark And Dangerous: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
188 winning selections from 660 = 28.48%
63 winning bets in 173 days = 36.42%
P/L : +51.03pts (+14.83% ROI)
We come towards the final week of selections for March, looking for winners from the following two A/W contests…
Beylerbey paid the price for puling too hard and running too freely in the opening stages of her last race, eventually headed inside the final furlong as she ran out of steam. In her defence, she was overhauled by a flying 2/5 favourite who had timed her run perfectly under a more patient ride. Stable jockey Joe Fanning takes the ride today, though and his good record over the shorter trips on the A/W allied to a drop back in trip should ensure another bold bid today. I wouldn’t be surprised if she attempts to make all on her handicap debut and the sharper trip today might make her difficult to catch at 4/1 BOG (Stan James).
Also similarly priced at 4/1 BOG is my preferred option for this race: Star Up In The Sky. Kevin Ryan is a dab hand at placing 5lb claiming jockeys in these handicap events to good effect. This horse has won two of her last four starts and was fourth last time out, beaten by just under five lengths off a mark of 69 over today’s trip. She runs off 67 today and Kevin Stott able to take 5lbs off, she effectively runs at the same mark as her last win, two starts ago.
It should also be pointed out that her last run (4th place) was in a far stronger contest than this one, she finished 5 places and 8.5 lengths ahead of Profile Star that day. Profile Star is the only runner from that race to have reappeared so far and she ran out a winner last Wednesday, so hopefully the omens are good!
My Single Malt wore a combination of cheek pieces and a hood for the first time when winning here over course and distance just four days and is turned out again quickly under a penalty in a bid to take advantage of what must have been a boost to his confidence after a losing run. He has won off a higher mark than today in the past ans was placed second off this mark last year, but the manner of his victory last time out suggests the penalty won’t be enough if the headgear works its trick again.
He led with 2f to go on Thursday and soon pulled a couple of lengths clear and could probably have found more if needed. He’s now currently best priced at 2/1 BOG with Stan James in his bid to land back to back C&D successes.
I’d expect the main challenge to come from One Scoop or Two, for whom all three career A/W victories have been here at Wolverhampton, with two of them coming over course and distance. He has actually won a race of any kind since his last CD win here in early-February 2013, but he has shown signs of coming back to form of late could be well set to take advantage of a falling handicap mark. He runs off just 68 today, which is now 4lbs lower than that last win and is the same mark as his previous win (also over C&D).
He’s not the easiest of rides by any means, but the step back up to his favoured trip will help him today and he looks reasonable value at 4/1 BOG with Boylesports.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Beylerbey/ My Single Malt @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : Stan James)
Beylerbey / One Scoop or Two @ 20.67/1 (4/1 & 100/30 : Stan James)
Star Up In The Sky / My Single Malt @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : Stan James)
Star Up In The Sky / One Scoop or Two @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : Bet365, BetVictor,
whilst the same odds are achieved via 7/2 & 4/1 at Boylesports)