Stat of the Day, 24th March 2014
No joy with Newdane Dancer on Saturday up at Kelso and my day of rest has flown by, so it’s back to the start of a new week for SotD, where the aim is always, to find you a good stat-based selection at a value price.
Long-term results suggest we find two winners from seven and we make over 20% ROI, so hopefully we’ll head towards April under a head of steam, starting with today’s…
And the trainer is Ben Pauling. Some of you might be asking who he is, so I’ll tell you a little about him. He was an assistant to Nicky Henderson for five years before setting up training camp on his own, sending out his first runner last September.
Since then he has had 53 runners with what is best described as moderate success with five winners, but here’s where it gets statistically of interest. 5/53 isn’t great and certainly doesn’t get you into SotD, However, in the last month alone his horses are 4/13, meaning the yard is in form.
Ben’s 53 runners are split as follows: 29 in non-handicaps with just one winner, whilst the 24 handicaps have produced 4 winners. The fact that today’s race is a handicap has to be a bonus.
Ben has sent his runners to 18 different tracks to date, but the one he has frequented most is here at Towcester, where he has been represented six times and his three winners here for 14.55pts profit is excellent stuff. In fact two of the three losers were priced at 16/1 and 66/1, so he’s actually 3/4 here with horses in our price range.
Just the one runner for Ben today, Cosway Spirit, who comes here on the back of a course and distance win last time out just 11 days ago and that was the first time he had made the frame in his previous seven starts. The fact he is turned out so quickly after finally hitting some form is of particular interest to me, as it reminds me of other similar runners ie…
Horses running in a UK handicap chase at odds of 12/1 or under, within 30 days of a win last time out, which was preceded by at least three unplaced runs, went on to record a back-to-back victory on 42 of 170 occasions (24.7% SR) since the start of 2013. This excellent strike rate has also yielded level stakes profits of 65.95pts (+38.8% ROI) in that time.
Also slightly more specifically, since 2009, horses running in UK handicap chases on the back of a win LTO within 30 days on the back of at least 3 unplaced efforts and where their penultimate run was between 15 to 30 days before that recent win have won 32 of 101 races when priced at 12/1 or under and were running within one class and within 1 furlong of their last run.
This 31.7% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 80pts over the five years, a return of 79.2% above stakes invested.
Whilst Ben Pauling’s own stats are impressive, the sample size is admittedly small, but the quick returning winner suggestion is the likely angle here today and such I think we’ve a very good chance with a 1pt win bet on Cosway Spirit at 9/2 BOG. I’ve gone with Bet365 for this one, but the same price is available at PP, as can be seen, if you just…