Double Dutch, 25th March 2014
My Single Malt looked set for victory last night, but was overhauled approximately 50 yards from the line and went down to a one length defeat, denying us a very tasty 14/1 double in the process.
This was because my first choice and 4/1 pick Star In The Sky booted clear in the final furlong to score by almost three lengths, with Beylerbey a good way back in last place!
So, back amongst the winners, but only one from two and that pays nothing!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Star Up In The Sky: won at 3/1 (adv 4/1)
Beylerbey: last of 7 at 5/1 (adv 4/1)
My Single Malt: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
One Scoop or Two: 4th at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
189 winning selections from 664 = 28.46%
63 winning bets in 174 days = 36.21%
P/L : +49.03pts (+14.17% ROI)
49pts and 14% profit is still good going, especially for those of you with us from the start, when we couldn’t buy a winner for the first few weeks! However profits of over 50pts and 15% are more aesthetically and psychologically pleasing, so let’s try to get back there with these…
I have to agree with Matt’s selection for The Shortlist for the winner of this race. Not only does Our Phylli Vera look the likeliest to succeed in a fairly poor-looking race, I’d also suggest she was overpriced and offers good value at 2/1 BOG. She comes here on the back of successive wins at Plumpton (2m & 2m2f, both on soft ground). She defied a 13lb penalty to win last time out and is only up a further 4lbs for today’s run where the drop back to the bare minimum should help.
Our interactive racecard will also tell you at a glance that she’s best suited for this one, as she has won 4 of her 8 starts on soft ground and she’s 3 from 5 in these small fields races, which can often develop into tactical affairs. If she’s allowed to dictate the race, then I expect her to make light work of any rise in weight. There doesn’t seem to be much pace in the race, so I’m not worried about her being run out of it early on.
My backup plan would be to go with one of the unexposed pair Lady Charisma or Madame de Guise who have just 5 runs over hurdles between them. of the two, Lady Charisma has shown most promise so far, winning on her second effort back at the end of November. That was over today’s trip and at this class, before she turned out at a class higher at Wincanton almost eight weeks ago. She was in the process of running a decent race there, sitting in second place 2 lengths off the leader when she fell 2 from home.
If Lady Charisma continues to progress, then she might well take advantage of the drop back in trip to score again here at a best price of 5/2 BOG.
Just five are set to go to post for this one and of the five, the most consistent/reliable of late has been Smart Exit. He was hardly prolific over hurdles, making the frame (a win at Fakenham on New Years’ Day 2013) just once in nine attempts, but a switch to the larger obstacles a year ago has seen him perform much better. Finishes of 323214 in his six efforts over fences suggest he’ll be there or thereabouts again today.
He was, admittedly, disappointing when 4th at Towcester last time out whilst attempting back to back wins at that course, but he had been dropped 3 furlongs to compete there and he really needs 3 miles and beyond, which he reverts back to today. It looks like his team have hunted out a weak contest for him to get back to winning ways and at 11/4 BOG, there could well be a bit of value around too.
Clear and obvious danger looms, however, in the shape of Tarraco, who boasts a similar run of form of late (4214 in his last four runs). He was also disappointing last time out and comes here with a point to prove. He’s no mug over fences though, having also won twice in France before switching to the UK. I should also add that prior to that latest defeat, he had won by 28 lengths, easing down to a virtual walk at Plumpton, so it might be prudent to ignore the last run. As I mentioned earlier, this is a weak looking race and if Smart Exit isn’t up to it, then Tarraco could well take this at 7/2 BOG (Stan James)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Our Phylli Vera / Smart Exit @ 11/1 (2/1 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Our Phylli Vera / Tarraco @ 12.50/1 (2/1 & 7/2 : Stan James & BetVictor)
Lady Charisma / Smart Exit @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Lady Charisma / Tarraco @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : Stan James & BetVictor)