Stat of the Day, 26th March 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2014

Nozic, no joy, I’m afraid. The old warrior ran well enough until an error 4 from home seemed to upset his rhythm and it wasn’t long before he began to struggle.

To his and his jockey’s credit, they persevered and saw the race out, albeit from the back of the pack, around 19 lengths behind the eventual winner. Nozic had drifted out from our advised 7/2 to an SP of 6/1 and the market was proven right not to back him.

Lowly Class 6 A/W Handicap action awaits us on Wednesday evening, as I try to unravel the…

7.30 Kempton:

Where jockey Kevin Stott claims 5lb aboard Kevin Ryan’s Desert Colours, who comes here seeking a hat-trick inside a fortnight after winning at Wolverhampton at this grade and trip just five days ago.

Kevin Ryan is one of the more astute trainers when it comes to employing the services of the 5lb claiming jockeys and by doing so here will negate the vast bulk of the horse’s 6lb penalty for Friday evening’s two length victory.

In fact, since the start of 2011, Kevin Ryan has had a 5lb claimer on board 72 horses priced at 12/1 or under, with 16 (22.22% SR) of them going on to win with the resultant 46.8pts profit being the equivalent of 65% of stakes invested.

I did say that Desert Colours won a similar standard of race just 5 days ago over this same 7f trip and he’s not the only one, for in the same 2011-14 time frame, there have been 133 winners from the 360 horses running under the following conditions: not heavy ground, running at the same trip or within 1f of LTO and at either the same class or up a grade from a win withing the last 5 days. 133/360 is a strike rate of 36.94% and has generated level stakes profits of 126.73pts (+35.2% ROI).

From which: the A/W figures are 46/130 (35.4% SR) for 49.1pts (+37.8% ROI).
On the A/W at the same class: 29/91 (31.9% SR) for 26.12pts (+28.7% ROI)
On the A/W at the same trip: 37/102 (36.3% SR) for 42.09pts (+41.3% ROI)
And on the A/W at the same trip & class: 22/68 (32.4% SR) for 21.44pts (+31.5% ROI)

All of which steers me towards a 1pt win bet on Desert Colours at 100/30 BOG with BetVictor, but other bookies are available, as you’ll see if you..

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