Stat of the Day, 27th March 2014
A nice bookie bashing win at Kempton on Wednesday evening, as our 100/30 shot Desert Colours returned as a 2/1 winning favourite. He led in the early stages but was headed around halfway before battling back to regain the lead and running on to score by a length and a quarter to complete a quick fire hat-trick.
More Class 6 A/W handicap action from Sunbury for Thursday evening’s…
Where I expect Cravat to repeat his win over this one mile trip, as he did five days ago at Lingfield. He stayed on well under a drive from Andrea Atzeni to win by a length on Friday and has a great chance here too.
He’s up 6lbs in weight for this 4yo+ handicap, which now makes him the top weight for this contest, but the bulk of that penalty is offset by the booking of talented claimer Eoin Walsh, who will take 5lbs off here.
I’m happy to see Eoin on board this horse, as he has a fantastic record here at Kempton, winning five times from ten starts on horses priced under 8/1 ie SotD territory. It’s a small sample size, admittedly, but a 50% strike rate returning 19.9pts (+199% ROI) profit cannot be ignored and is a positive for me.
I’m also not concerned about Cravat bearing top weight, because (and bear with me, this is quite long 😀 ), if we consider horses fitting the following profile:
Male horses who were top weight in UK A/W 4yo+ Handicaps at Class 5 to 7 over a trip of a mile and beyond and priced at 6/1 or under running within 10 days of a win last time out or who finished second within a length of the winner went on to win 44 of 116 races. Phew! And now breathe.
This 44/116 is a strike rate of some 37.9% and has generated level stakes profits of 48pts or 41.4% of stakes invested and from this we have a record of 14/24 (58.3% SR) for 29.3pts (+122% ROI) here at Kempton.
Those top weight numbers added to the excellent record of an up and coming jockey are enough for me to be confident about a 1pt win bet on Cravat. I’m on at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, whilst 5/2 seems to be the best elsewhere. For all the prices available…