Double Dutch, 31st March 2014
Another winning double on Saturday, with Graphic drifting to 7/2 (bonus!) beating our other selection, Fencing in the first leg. Then, I opposed the 6/4 favourite, Baily Green, with Bog Warrior and Roi Du Mee. Bog Warrior prevailed at 5/2 to make a 14.75/1 double.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Graphic: won at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Fencing: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Bog Warrior: won at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Roi Du Mee: 4th at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
196 winning selections from 680 = 28.82%
66 winning bets in 178 days = 37.08%
P/L : +64.37pts (+18.18% ROI)
Monday has a trappy feel to it, but we’re in good form so let’s see if we can bag a four-timer, starting in the…
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
It’s good ground at Plumpton today, and the opening novices’ hurdle has a pair of likely winners at the head of market affairs. Sergeant Mattie was a winner here over course and distance last time out on soft ground, and any fears about this terra firmer are mitigated by a win on his previous start over a short trip on good. In other words, he’s blessed with speed and stamina, and he’ll be hard to beat even with the double penalty he has to lug for his labours.
Count Danilo is essentially a double winner without a double penalty because, after winning on his penultimate start over this sort of trip on good to soft, he was then going clear when tumbling three out the last day. Now three out is still some way from home, but he was traveling the best that day, and looked the most likely winner. Again, we have going, trip and talent all confirmed and he could be the biggest danger to the favourite.
Strollawaynow is actually rated the equal of Mattie, on 130, and he’s the probable fly in the Double Dutch ointment if there’s to be one.
There is a short-priced favourite here, and a gaggle of possibles if he fails to fire. Dutiful Son represents Jeremy Noseda and Ryan Moore, and that top combo was responsible for this fellow winning last time out, Moore’s first sit on the son of Invincible Spirit. That was over course and distance, and followed up on his maiden win, also over this track and trip.
Moore had him much handier that last day, and a forward move could be advantageous again as there doesn’t look to be a huge amount of early dash. Dutiful Son is on the up, and he’s easily the most likely winner.
If for any reason Moore can’t carry him home, then perhaps Hayley Turner will salvage a tasty wager aboard Marjong. Second to Dutiful Son last time, this daughter of Mount Nelson spotted the winner an awful lot of territory then and will hopefully be a tad handier in the early running. Her run style is from behind, and that often lead to ‘unlucky loser’ status. Marjong has been in the frame in four of her six distance runs, and I’d expect she’d at least claim a place this time too.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Count Danilo / Dutiful Son @ 3.55/1 (11/8 & 10/11 : Skybet)
Count Danilo / Marjong @ 25.18/1 (11/8 & 10/1 : totesport)
Sergeant Mattie / Dutiful Son @ 4.25/1 (7/4 & 10/11 : Skybet)
Sergeant Mattie / Marjong @ 29.25/1 (7/4 & 10/1 : BetVictor)