Aintree 2014 Day One Preview, Trends, Tips

Aintree 2014 Day One Preview, Trends, Tips

Day One of Aintree’s Grand National meeting is one of the highest quality race days of the year. Featuring four Grade 1’s, it rivals Cheltenham’s and Royal Ascot’s opening days in terms of sustained class. And it all gets underway at two o’clock with the 4yo Juvenile Hurdle.

2.00 4-Y-O JUVENILE HURDLE (Grade 1)

A race in which Triumph Hurdle places horses have an excellent record, there are a few other compelling trends to note.

4yo Juvenile Hurdle Trends

Last time out – Thirteen of the last seventeen winners were placed 1-2-3 last time out. Thirteen ran last time at Cheltenham (twelve in Triumph, one in Fred Winter), and two more last ran in Kempton’s Adonis.

Distance – This is a two mile one furlong race, and that extra furlong can be telling. Indeed, while nine of the last seventeen winners (53%) had won over this extended trip, they came from just 31% of the runners. Those horses never to have run beyond the bare two miles were 0 from 37 in that time. Whereas horses to have run up to a maximum of between 2m1f and 2m2f recorded 14 wins from 118 runs, or 82% winners from 55% of the runners.

4yo Juvenile Hurdle Form Preview

There are two main races to look at from a form perspective, the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Adonis Hurdle from Kempton.

The Triumph is the pre-eminent trial for this and placed horses from that race have won eight times since 1999, and have been represented in the frame every year since 2001 (33/1 Majlis the only Triumph representative). As such, Guitar Pete, the only one of the 1-2-3 from the Triumph deserves respect, as does the brutally unlucky Calipto.

Guitar Pete has been on the go a long time, and progressed well on soft ground to win a Grade 1 in Ireland. His third at Cheltenham was a bold effort, and this track may actually suit him better. He, like so many similar horses before him, looks very likely to ‘medal’, and 4/1 is probably fair enough.

Calipto was indisputably unlucky in the Triumph: one of Daryl Jacob’s stirrups broke – unfortunately for the jockey that wasn’t the last thing he was to break that ill-fated day – and he rode rodeo stylee from the second last, doing manfully to get as close as he did, just three and three quarter lengths behind Guitar Pete in fourth.

He has a favourite’s chance here, and might be the best of the Triumph horses. But the Adonis could just be the race on which to focus this year, as in fact it was last term. L’Unique skipped Cheltenham then, having run third in the Adonis, and she skipped home here too.

This time, the Adonis form is brought to the party by Messrs Activial and Commissioned (and Agreement, but he has a mountain to climb on the book). Activial was ante-post favourite for the Triumph before side-stepping it, and he looked very good at Kempton when three lengths too good for Commissioned.

That was the bare minimum trip, and Activial was three lengths behind Calipto when racing over a furlong further at Newbury, a track not dissimilar in constitution to Aintree. Both have progressed since, and there ought not to be much between them once more.

Commissioned might appreciate the step back up to the trip he faced on his hurdling debut when third at Cheltenham’s December meeting and that, in combination with a slightly softer underfoot can see him run a big race.

Aurore d’Estruval, like L’Unique last year, gets the mares’ seven pound allowance, and she could shake up the places with more expected on this sounder surface. Of the rest, Hawk High – winner of the Fred Winter – and the long absent Fox Norton are both nice types, and the former especially could run well at a price.

4yo Juvenile Hurdle Tips

I think Calipto has a really solid chance on the book, but his stable is not exactly in great form – and rarely does as well as it should at Aintree – so he’s overlooked in favour of Activial. Harry Fry’s Adonis winner has lots of scope and comes here a fresh horse ready to run a big race.

Guitar Pete might be placepot banker material, though less appealing than Activial for the win berth, while each way punters could do worse than consider the chances of Hawk High and Commissioned.

Selection: Activial 9/2 general
Best Each Way: Hawk High 12/1 general

**

2.30 BETFRED BOWL CHASE (Grade 1)

Usually a very good race, it looks a tad under par this term, but still brings together four Grade 1 winners in a field of six.

Betfred Bowl Chase Trends

Last time out –  Curiously, perhaps, only two of the last seventeen winners actually won last time as well (12% winners from 17% runners). Compare that with the ten that finished second, third or fourth (59% winners) from forty runners (34% of the runners).

Thirteen of those seventeen winners ran at Cheltenham last time, with eight of them running in the Gold Cup. Backing the 70 horses that ran in this since 1997 having run in a Grade 1 contest last time out would have netted a profit of 15 points at SP, despite being a fairly obvious angle to go at. And backing those that ran in a Cheltenham Grade 1 last time out would have slightly improved that to twelve winners from 65 runners, and a profit of 26 points at Betfair SP.

The biggest priced winner in that time was 14/1, so there are no outlandish odds victors skewing those data.

Betfred Bowl Chase Form Preview

The likely favourite is Silviniaco Conti, and why wouldn’t he be? After all, he finished fourth in the Gold Cup, and won the King George before that. He’s a dual Grade 1 winner, including over this course and distance (3m1f). So that’s the good news.

The bad news for Silviniaco Conti fans is that he was beaten in this last year when sent off the even money favourite; Paul Nicholls has a pretty poor Aintree Festival record (as alluded to elsewhere); and he had a hard race in the Gold Cup last time.

Of course he can win. But even if he does win, the price of 9/4 or so is unexciting, and certainly no value.

Silvi has been usurped for favouritism by Dynaste, winner of the Ryanair at the Festival. That’s a route which was taken by First Lieutenant last year – second in the Ryanair before winning the Aintree Bowl – and he looked to have benefited from the breathing operation the last day.

If he runs his race, and I suspect he will, he’ll probably win: he’s classy on his day, for sure. But he does have plenty of off days, such as when thumped in the King George two starts back when sent off joint favourite.

We’re getting deep into ‘what if’ territory now, but if both of the market leaders under-perform, that might open the door for First Lieutenant. There was no fluke about his win in this last year, and he’s run well in defeat in a trio of Grade 1’s this year. It is certainly fair to say that his win percentage is disappointing – just three from eighteen chase starts – but he’s able to bolster that with a dozen second or third places. The slightly quicker ground should help him, and I can see him running a big race having missed Cheltenham this time.

Then it’s 11/1 Menorah and any price Argocat and Houblon Des Obeaux. Menorah is another in-and-out performer, and he was second in this last year on an ‘in’ day. Despite also winning the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase here in 2012, he’d not be for me, though I can see the value argument, and he does look the best each way option if taking on three shorties in a six horse race is your idea of a good each way play. Ahem.

As discussed elsewhere, Venetia Williams has a lamentable Aintree record in recent seasons (Mon Mome, her only win from 40 runners in that time, notwithstanding), and Houblon doesn’t look nearly good enough to be tooting his Obeaux here. Argocat is an ex-Flat racer and his only win at three miles or more was when stealing a Limerick Grade 2 from a sole completing rival rated 114! No sir, not today.

Betfred Bowl Chase Tips

This is a desperate betting heat, with far more if’s and but’s than a six horse Grade 1 should present. Dynaste looks a solid enough favourite and is the most likely winner to my eye. But that doesn’t make him a majority verdict job. This is a hung parliament of a race and I will not be betting. I’ll be taking two of the top three in the placepot and hoping that at least one of them runs its race. Ugh.

Most likely winner: Dynaste 2/1 totesport

**

3.05 AINTREE HURDLE (Grade 1)

The Grade 1 action – in name at least – just keeps on coming. The third of four top level races on the card is the Aintree Hurdle, run over two and a half miles. This year, it sees a long odds-on favourite in the form of The New One, an arguably unlucky third in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Aintree Hurdle Trends

Last time out – Surprisingly, perhaps, only thirteen of the last seventeen winners finished in the first five last time out.

Distance – Although eight winners since 1997 had not previously won at the 2m4f trip, they were collectively from 111 runs. That is 47% winners from 71% runners. Put another way, those with at least one win at the trip scored nine times from 46 runners (53% winners from 29% runners). That is a material fact. The distance winners are Diakali, Irish Saint and Ptit Zig, all of which are 12/1 or 14/1 shots.

Aintree Hurdle Form Preview

The New One stands head and shoulders above his rivals here on form, and his price in the market reflects that. He was interfered with by Our Conor when that one tragically fell in the Champion Hurdle and stayed on for third, looking unlucky. He also won the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December and was second in the Christmas Hurdle. All of those races were at two miles or so.

Prior to that, last season he won the Neptune at the Festival over 2m5f, and he ran second in this race as the 11/4 favourite. So he’s won at a longer trip than this but not at this trip. It may seem churlish to chuck him on that basis, and I’m absolutely not going to do that. But it is my job to try to get odds on shots beaten if/when there’s a value case to be made elsewhere.

So, is there a value case to be made elsewhere? Both Rock On Ruby and Grandouet are smart hurdlers reverting to the game after abortive novice chase seasons. Of the pair, Rock On Ruby seems a much more reliable prospect: he’s a strong traveler who looks like he needs beyond the minimum these days as he has undoubtedly lost some of the speed that made him a Champion Hurdler just two seasons ago.

Lest we forget, he was also second in that race last year, and on that form he deserves respect here. The question is, what effect has that chasing training had on his speed and his hurdling? And at 9/1 I’m not sure I’m prepared to buy an answer.

Grandouet is a frustrating horse. Clearly talented, he just doesn’t like to jump and I think I’d be tempted to aim him at Cup races on the flat. It’s got to be worth a try! I certainly couldn’t entertain him here, as his jumping is bad even over hurdles.

That brings us to the trio of distance winners, Irish Saint, Diakali and Ptit Zig. Of the three, I suspect Ptit Zig has a big race in Britain in him. He was sixth in the Champion Hurdle, beaten fifteen lengths (and eleven lengths behind The New One). But his best run of the year was when winning a Grade 1 hurdle in France over two and a half miles.

The ground that day was heavy, and it will likely be no worse than good to soft here, but he’s won on good ground too, albeit in lower grade. Diakali has also won a French Grade 1 in the last year, claiming the 4yo Championship at Auteuil in June. He ran well off top weight in the County Hurdle, but his trainer’s 0-33 record at this meeting in the last five years puts me off.

The complete outsider of the field, Grumeti, may not be a totally forlorn hope. He’s won four out of five on good to soft, and is one from one at the track (the 4yo Grade 1 in 2012). He was sticking on without threatening the leaders when making a horlicks of the third last.

Given Alan King’s excellent record at this meeting, and the fact that Grumeti could conceivably improve on his first attempt at beyond seventeen furlongs, he could stay on past tired and ‘over the top’ rivals in the straight. There will be worse 50/1 shots this week.

Aintree Hurdle Tips

The New One is likely to win but his overall win record is not that well aligned with his likely price here. In fact, he has all the hallmarks of an ‘unlucky’ horse. He’s lost four of his last seven races, three of them as favourite, and that’s not even a remotely tempting profile.

Against him, one of the pair of Diakali and Ptit Zig could be value; and as a complete outsider, Grumeti offers more cause for optimism than most 50/1 pokes. It’s a real shame that there are only seven runners as I think he has a fair chance of being in the first three, but we’ll get only two places for our money here.

Most likely winner: The New One 4/9 totesport
Suggested small bet against the fav: Ptit Zig 20/1 BetVictor
Complete outsider with an each way squeak: Grumeti 66/1 BetVictor

**

3.40 FOX HUNTERS´ CHASE (CLASS 2)

Ah, the Foxhunters’ Chase. Won last year by a 13yo priced at 100/1, and four years ago by a 50/1 shot, it doesn’t pay to get too aggressive here. Instead, it’s worth taking a couple at prices against the field.

Fox Hunters’ Trends

Age – All bar 50/1 Silver Adonis were aged in double digits

Last time out – Twelve of the last seventeen winners finished 1-2-3 last time out, and another three either fell or unseated (two of which won the time before that). Only five of the last seventeen winners last ran under rules at the Cheltenham Festival, with two each running previously under rules at Fontwell, Ludlow and here at Aintree.

Aintree factor – Eleven of the last seventeen winners (65%) had previously run at Aintree, from 199 runners (47%)

So we’re looking for a veteran that finished last time out (or won the time before if falling LTO), and we’ll mark up Cheltenham, Aintree, Fontwell and Ludlow form. Previous Aintree runners especially have a good record, and are highlighted in bold in a shortlist of Richard’s Sundance, Fresh Air And Fun, Mossey Joe, Pentiffic, and Warne.

Fox Hunters’ Form Preview

This is a cracking race from a betting perspective because it has a 6/4 favourite in a field of 22. Granted, Mossey Joe is entitled to be a short priced favourite and if he avoids all the trouble, and is at the level of form he showed when hacking up in the Champion Hunters’ Chase at Stratford last summer. The fact that he might try to make all is in his favour as far as trouble is concerned if his amateur rider can ration his energies.

But he’s been off a long time, a facile school round in a point to point notwithstanding. And he used to be a dodgy enough jumper. He’s the sort of horse you just have to let beat you at the price. I mean, amateur riders, twenty-two runners, even over the new super-easy Aintree fences! (As an aside, five fell or unseated last year, compared to twelve in 2012).

Of course, I respect Mossey Joe’s chance. But I’m looking for a horse – or two – to beat him. Starting with Warne, a fourth placed finisher in this race last year. He’s since been bought by those moneybags Waley-Cohen’s and that’s another reason for me to perpetuate my irrational dislike of ‘the posh dentist’. He’s actually a very good jockey in the context of this race, and his horse went close to winning last year despite suffering a touch of interference.

But he did lose, and two of the horses that beat him reoppose. So why should he beat them this time? Well, there was that modicum of hampering. And there is a better jockey on this time (though Mikie Fogarty is no back number). And he’s a year more mature this year, as a ten year old.

He was whacked 46 lengths by Mossey Joe over this trip in Ireland last year, and that’s a lot. He ought to be thereabouts, but he’s 9/2 and that’s unexciting in a race where 22 of the 51 placed horses since 1997 were 14/1 or bigger. Again, conversely, eleven of the seventeen winners in that time were priced at 6/1 or shorter. Gosh, I don’t know which way to turn!

In front of Warne that day were Tartan Snow and Cool Friend, first and second with a neck between them. Warne was five and a half back. Tartan Snow is fourteen now. It was incredible that he could win at thirteen. It would be sensational if he could repeat the dose a year later.

Cool Friend on the other hand is eleven, which is optimal for this race, and he did all but win last year. He’s been placed in seven of his eight career starts on good to soft ground since 2009, and in all three spins around here. He’s got to be worth an each way nibble at 20/1.

Richard’s Sundance, a twelve year old, won last time at Fontwell, a venue responsible for a brace of recent Fox Hunters’ winners’ last runs. He’s a formerly smart animal too, and stays a lot further than this. Richard might be front rank, where he’ll likely have all or a subset of Mossey Joe, Harry Flashman, Dead Or Alive, and Brunswick Gold for company. That could make this attritional and, if he doesn’t get outpaced, his guaranteed stamina will be a huge asset.

If you want a rag to cheer, try Fresh Air And Fun. He was fifth in this in 2012 and made a pleasing return from a year off last time out when staying on over a slightly shorter trip at Ludlow, a track where two recent prior winners had their prep. 66/1 is worth a shilling each way, with experienced amateur Will Biddick booked to ride.

Pentiffic is one of not many last time out winners, but he’s been seen off in lesser company than this, and trainer Venetia Williams’ record of 1-3-40 (one win, three places, from forty runners) is not good, even if the winner was Mon Mome.

Supreme Doc and Cottage Oak are both talented horses near the top of the betting, but neither has recent rules form, and I’ll let them beat me if they can in a race where stakes will be at the thin end.

Most likely winner: Mossey Joe 13/8 BetVictor
Best each way speculative: Cool Friend 20/1 bet365 (1/4 1-2-3-4)
Best complete no hoper each way speculative: Fresh Air And Fun 66/1 bet365 (1/4 1-2-3-4)

**

4.15 RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE (Grade 3)

The first handicap of the meeting, and not the last. The Red Rum Handicap Chase is over two miles and it takes a good bit of getting at top gear.

Red Rum Handicap Chase Trends

Last time out – Eleven of the last seventeen winners were in the first five last time out, with another five failing to finish the last day. Only nine of the seventeen ran at Cheltenham last time out.

Age – 7-9yo’s have won thirteen of the last seventeen runnings (76%) from 162 runners (67%)

Weight – 13/17 carried 11-02 or less (76% winners from 74% runners), so weight has had little bearing on the outcome

Ratings – 15/17 came from a stone band between 129 and 143 (88% winners from 65% runners)

Those which match the profile best are Sound Investment, Changing The Guard, Kings Grey, and Turn Over Sivola.

Red Rum Handicap Chase Form Preview

A really testing punting puzzle is the first of the meeting’s handicaps. Winners since 2008 at 20/1 twice and 25/1 mean we can’t readily discount anything, so let’s start with the top weight, Oiseau de Nuit.

OdN won this last year off a pound lower mark, but that equated to four pounds less weight, and a year less age. He’s twelve now and, whilst that didn’t stop him winning aged eleven, that’s because he wasn’t twelve then. If you see what I mean. Of course, being twelve may not stop him either, but at some point the old boy has to begin his inevitable and inexorable downward slide.

He did finish second in 2012 and third in 2011, so clearly he loves this place and this race. He’s a spring horse and trainer Colin Tizzard has his team in fine form after a difficult season with a lurgy, so it’s not impossible that this fellow can run a big’un again at 16/1.

The favourite is Claret Cloak, and I’m against him. He’s a lightly raced novice, but keeps going up for not winning. A third at the Cheltenham Festival has bumped him up another four pounds meaning he’s now thirteen pounds higher than his last winning mark. Nevertheless, he is well suited by conditions and could make the frame. His price is skinny in the win context though.

Arnaud is next in the betting, and his second in a Grade 2 reads well in this Grade 3 handicap company. He seems to go on any ground but is another that has shot up as a result of exploits outside of handicap company.

Sound Investment is on a hat-trick and represents 2012 winning trainer, Paul Nicholls. He’s certainly open to more improvement and two miles should suit well, but whether he’s as effective on this track – thumped both runs here – is a moot point.

Changing The Guard is one I like. He’s within three pounds of his last winning rating, was fourth in a handicap hurdle here last year, goes on the ground, and acts well enough in a big field. He could be close enough to the pace to hit the board at 18/1.

Alan King has arguably the best recent Aintree record of anyone, and his Turn Over Sivola looks primed for another big effort. Second in four of his last five chase starts, this novice might appear frustrating. But when you see he was beaten just five lengths by Hinterland – rated 154 – off level weights a couple of starts back, his mark of 134 looks a steal.

This will have been the plan for a while, and he could be a fair bit better than he’s shown so far. It’s always a worry when a horse has seconditis but, given the lull in the King yard earlier in the season, there are plenty of reasons to be cheerful about his chance. He’s being backed as I write, but 8/1 is still widely available.

One other worthy of mention is Keith Reveley’s Kings Grey. This fellow has a strong profile, with five placed efforts on good to soft from eight attempts, including a fourth in this race last year off 135. He’s off the same mark again this time, and looks primed for another prominent display given his prominent run style.

Red Rum Handicap Tips

I like Turn Over Sivola here, and I’ve backed him. I hope he wins. Oiseau de Nuit, Kings Grey and Changing The Guard will all be on my placepot ticket.

Red Rum Chase Selection: Turn Over Sivola 9/1 BetVictor

**

4.50 MANIFESTO NOVICES´ CHASE (Grade 1)

The last of the Grade 1’s is a novices’ chase over two and a half miles, and with a roll of honour including Captain Conan, Wishfull Thinking and Menorah in the last three years you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s a nutjob’s paradise!

Manifesto Novices’ Chase Trends

Just five years of data to go on, so nothing too concrete as yet. However, all of the winners have been 11/2 or shorter thus far, and come from the first three in the betting. None won last time out and only one favourite has obliged to date. All five ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out.

Manifesto Novices’ Chase Form Preview

Just five go to post here, headed by first fence Arkle tumbler, Oscar Whisky. He’s a two time Aintree Hurdle winner, so the course and distance will hold no fears. Whether the fences will trouble him again is an unknown. In fairness, this quintet will present a fair less strenuous challenge of his jumping than the early hurly-burly at Cheltenham.

Nevertheless, he’s failed to impress with that part of his game all season, and at 2/1 he’s short enough despite holding a clear class advantage on this field (167 rated hurdler).

Western Warhorse won the Arkle and bids to follow up here. There are two schools of thought on the merit of the Arkle form. One says that with a 33/1 shot winning and so many finishing in close proximity, it must have been a poor renewal. The other says that the winner improved markedly from his sole prior chase start (also a win), and a number of the beaten horses ran to their form.

I tend to side with the latter view, though of course we’ll all be wiser by five o’clock. Although an Arkle winner has yet to win here too, that’s mainly because one has never lined up! Western Warhorse looked to need all of the shorter trip at Cheltenham, and this extra half mile or so is in his favour, especially as he’ll probably be able to rate the pace on the front.

I find it hard to see why Dodging Bullets should reverse Arkle form with the Warhorse. He was five lengths adrift at the jam stick and was whacked over this trip in a Grade 2 novices hurdle here last season. No thanks.

Uxizandre ran a screamer to just fail in the Jewson at the Festival, and we know the trip will suit. He may have just got outstayed that day, so the easier track could be in his favour. He did have a hard race there but, if it’s not left its mark, he should go close.

Fox Appeal may have been kept fresh for this, but he has a bit to find and seems to have a losing habit, having failed in four of his five chases.

Manifesto Novices’ Chase Tips

This is not a race I’m excited by from a betting standpoint, but I do think that Western Warhorse deserves to be favourite. On that basis, he looks the default best bet. Oscar Whisky has optimal conditions, fences notwithstanding, and if he remains upstanding, he’ll trouble the judge. But I’d be surprised if he doesn’t clout a couple on the way round.

I don’t like Dodging Bullets. He’s consistently failed at the top level and I’d be disappointed if he was good enough. Ditto Fox Appeal who makes nix appeal. Uxizandre might chase WW home.

Most likely winner: Western Warhorse 11/4 general

**

5.25 HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3)

The closing handicap hurdle, a Grade 3 event over three miles and half a furlong, takes plenty of getting and was won in two of the last three years by Battle Group, and three times since 2006 by Jonjo O’Neill. Despite it being a fiendish looking heat, the favourite has won four times in the last ten years, and horses priced 14/1 or shorter have claimed nine of the last ten renewals.

Trends

Age – All of the last seventeen winners were aged between five and nine.

Last time out – Eleven of the last seventeen winners finished 1-2-3-4 last time. Eight of those seventeen ran at Cheltenham last time, from 157 to try (47% winners from 49% runners), so no advantage either way there

Form – Twelve of the last seventeen winners had won in their last five starts (ten had won in their last two starts)

Weight – Fourteen of the last seventeen winners carried 11-01 or less

Ratings – Twelve of the last seventeen winners were rated in the 130’s

That gives us a trends shortlist of Doctor Harper, Carole’s Destrier, and Spirit of Shankly

Form Preview

A very tough race to call, but a few with chances include Jetson, Doctor Harper, Two Rockers and Josies Orders.

Jetson has been in superb form and has bounded up the handicap as a consequence. Second in this last year, he won the Punchestown qualifier for the Pertemps Final and was then fifth in that race, just two and a half lengths behind Fingal Bay. He’s gone up another pound for that to a mark of 145 – he was second last year off 140 – but that shouldn’t stop a bold show… though it may mean he has to settle for minor honours once more.

Doctor Harper will probably be front rank from the outset, and that might make it difficult for him to last out this trip in a race where those in midfield or held up usually claim the spoils, but he’s otherwise got a robust profile. The one other question mark is over his ability to stay the distance on first attempt beyond two and a half miles, but he has yet to show he doesn’t stay this far.

Two Rockers is a nice horse and comes from that man Alan King’s yard. His form this year can be ignored for two reasons. First, there was a virus in the stable, and he was apparently one of the worst affected. And secondly, it’s not actually that bad.

He ended last season by contesting the Grade 1 Neptune behind The New One, a sure sign of what the stable think of him. Then this year, he finished ninth in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock when poorly, before falling at the first in mid-February. He’s a lot better than he’s been able to show in recent times, and the 14/1 with Skybet is tempting.

Josies Orders also hails from a top stable for this meeting, that of Jonjo O’Neill, and he’s a horse that has been in great form, winning three of his last five. Whilst that means he’s rather shown his hand and may not be the best handicapped horse in the race, the flip side is that his trainer knows what he’s doing and he’ll have the services of AP McCoy in the saddle this time. He’s won a course and distance novice hurdle earlier in the season and could still be improving.

Of the trends nags, Spirit of Shankly is going to be popular at a race meeting in Liverpool, and has been in the first four all three times he’s contested Listed races. This is another step up but he might go well if seeing out the extra trip. And Carole’s Destrier is an improving novice who may have more to give.

Tips

Not a race I’ll be piling into, but I will have a couple of quid on Two Rockers, because I think he’s a lot better than he’s been able to show so far.

Tentative each way selection: Two Rockers 14/1 Skybet 1/4 1-2-3-4 BOG

p.s. don’t forget our April tipping competition has now started. If you’re a registered user, you can (and should!) enter here.