Stat of the Day, 2nd April 2014
More frustrating for geegeez’ flagship daily tipping piece yesterday as Pull The Pin beat all bar Klynch at 5/1. First is first and second is nowhere is a harsh truism, and we mark yesterday’s result as a ‘0’ and roll on to Wednesday, and the…
A race featuring a long odds on favourite may seem like a strange place to take an ailing Stat of the Day, but the Listed Heritage Stakes offers quite a compelling each way chance despite there only being two places to go at. Kingsbarns is favoured, and he has the official rating to duff these up.
Indeed, he’s a stone less a pound better than the next best on those numbers. But… this will be a big season for the 2012 Racing Post Trophy winner, and his trainer and owner will have fatter purses in mind when they hit the track this afternoon. Aidan O’Brien, the aforementioned trainer, has scored with just one of his 16 runners in the past fortnight, and had runners well beaten in March at 13/8, 11/8 and 4/9. Still, Kingsbarns will almost certainly win if fit.
I’m taking a chance that he’ll come on for it, and siding with Jim Bolger’s Light Heavy. Third in the Irish Derby of 2012, and fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes, Light Heavy is also a triple winner at this track, where his form reads 11164, the last two races in Group 3 and Group 1 company.
In contrast to Aidan O’Brien, Jim Bolger has hit the lids in the early part of the season – as is customary for his team – and he has three wins from sixteen runners already on the board. They were worth a profit of 3 points after accounting for the losers, and Bolger’s longer term Leopardstown record is exemplary.
In the past year, he’s saddled 17 winners from 98 runners for a profit of 20.78 points. And since 2009, he’s won with 69 of his 466 track runners (14.81%) and placed with 153 (33%).
In such context, the 8/1 about Light Heavy looks more appealing. He’s not been seen since an abortive mission to Meydan last spring, when two runs down the field on the Dubai lawns saw his mark drop from 113 to 104. Clearly something was amiss there, as he’s been off the track for 405 days. But, as material as that is the fact that Bolger has persisted with this stallion prospect into his fifth year, and it would appear he feels the fire still burns.
Despite the absence, Light Heavy is likely to be a good bit fitter than Kingsbarns today and, while the likes of Bold Thady Quill and Pop Art are talented on their day, neither could have got close to placing in a Derby or a Champion Stakes.
Light Heavy, each way, is the interesting line of attack today. 8/1 is ubiquitous so take the price with the Best Odds Guaranteed bookie of your choice, and let’s hope some fire still burns in the belly of Bolger’s beast.
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