Stat of the Day, 4th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th April 2014

At last, a return to the winners’ circle and a nominal profit from my recent stint. Dunraven Storm dun the biz, and went down a storm in this part of Hackney, I can tell you! Today, we’ll head to the sandy delights of another Dun, Dundalk, and specifically the…

6.45 Dundalk:

He’s won his last three over course and distance, and he’s stepping down a touch in class today, so the chance of Strategic Heights is fairly obvious if one ignores the weights.

However, against him are two horses that both have notionally better chances on today’s revised terms. When Strategic Heights beat Catwilldo on Valentine’s Day, he was in receipt of three pounds and ran off a rating of 50. Today, he races off 77 to Catwilldo’s 61, and gives that rival a stone and two pounds. Of course, that’s largely because our selection has improved enormously in recent weeks.

Queen Grace is the other whose form is incestuously linked to today’s pick. She gave Strategic Heights thirteen pounds last time out and went down by a length or so. Today, she concedes just six pounds.

In other words, both Catwilldo and Queen Grace are weighted to reverse form with Strategic Heights. But a horse in form is a horse in form, and the selection’s pace-pressing style is ideally suited to Dundalk’s constitution. He’ll be on or close to the lead from the start, and may well have more to come after a short break.

Of course, it won’t be a surprise if either of the other mentioned pair are able to reverse positions with Stat of the Day’s pick, but I do like following sprinters in form, and a horse with a three-from-three record over course and distance in his last three runs is worth sticking with until beaten. That may, or may not, be by seven o’clock tonight! 

9/2 with Betfred, BOG, is the win advice.

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Here is today’s racecard!