Double Dutch, 7th April 2014
We closed the week with a loser, as Capo Rosso beat our pick, Gworn, in the second leg of a nice looking double on Saturday. Capo would have been first reserve in that race, but there are no prizes for that on these pages.
We roll on into a difficult period where jumps form is tailing off and flat form ramping up. Weather adds a further element of unpredictability to the pot and the hope is that, though winning doubles may be less frequent, they ought to pay that little bit more.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Balder Succes: won at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Hinterland: 7th at 11/2 (adv 3/1)
Gworn: 2nd at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
Tellovoi: 6th at 10/3 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
205 winning selections from 703 = 29.16%
69 winning bets in 184 days = 37.5%
P/L : +75.94pts (+20.75% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Straight into the lion’s den of flat turf racing, and a twelve runner handicap over an extended mile. The two I’m focusing on here are Saigon City and Ogbourne Downs, for Luca Cumani and Charles Hills respectively.
Saigon City appeals as the type to improve with age last term, and he bagged a brace of handicaps in his last three starts. Adam Kirby rides today, and has a 50% (9/18) strike rate for the trainer. As with many at this time of year, fitness has to be taken on trust, but this chap did win after a break of two months last term so could go well enough fresh.
Ogbourne Downs has a nice profile for the race: he’s a course, distance, going and class winner, in June last year. He also ran a game third on soft ground last backend, after a break of ten weeks so, again, there is hope that he’ll be fit enough first time up.
Both runners should get a nice lead into the race from Luhaif and possible Tobacco Road, and with luck one will quicken to lead.
Maidens at Windsor historically have a good record of being won by the top of the market and, on a day where very little stands out, that’s an approach I’ll side with here. After all, it gives us a Sir Michael Stoute beast – in the form of Cannock Chase – and Stoute has begun the season very well. Three of his eight runners thus far have won, with another placed, and Cannock Chase will have the assistance of Ryan Moore to boot.
The second favourite is a George Margarson colt, Elusive Guest, who ran well in a mile maiden at this track. He’s bred for this mile and a quarter range, with bags of stamina on the dam side, and is still entered in both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby. If he’s to even get close to that sort of class he needs to win here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Saigon City/ Cannock Chase @ 8/1 (3/1 & 5/4 : PP)
Saigon City / Elusive Guest @ 23.75/1 (7/2 & 9/2 : 888sport)
Ogbourne Downs / Cannock Chase @ 14.75/1 (6/1 & 5/4 : Coral)
Ogbourne Downs / Elusive Guest @ 34/1 (6/1 & 4/1 : Coral)