Stat of the Day, 8th April 2014
When your luck is out, it’s out. And that was perfectly exemplified yesterday, when I went with a Nick Alexander stat. His Kelso runners finished 21631P2. Guess which one we were on.
It’s a horse for course stat today, where Honoured has been in the frame on eight of his nine Southwell starts. Southwell is a bit of a specialist track with its deep sandy surface, and if you have a horse that acts there it can be well worth specialising with them solely at the venue.
That’s largely what connections of today’s pick have decided to do, and his course form reads 723112221. That ‘7’ was three years before the rest of the string, which from October 2012 reads 23112221.
Trainer Mick Appleby has an excellent record in general, and at Southwell he’s trained seven winners from 13 runners in the last two weeks (53.85%), and has brilliant figures at the track whichever way you cut it.
The big imponderable is the step up in trip. All of his form to date has been at around a mile and a half and today he’ll be going two miles for the first time. They’ll probably not go much of a gallop, which will give him every chance of getting home, and he did win his last race here by eleven lengths a couple of weeks ago.
All in all, 4/1 with Hills looks good value if he can last the trip.
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