Stat of the Day, 12th April 2014
Good Morning Everyone!
It’s good to be back with you after my holiday. After all, there’s only so much time you can sit in the sunshine on a white sandy beach sipping ice-cold cocktails, isn’t there? The lure of the new Flat season was too strong, so here I am, ready to go!
Matt seemed to have a bit of an unlucky run in my absence, further epitomised by his parting shot last night when Final Delivery went from first to third in a matter of strides in the shadow of the post to deny the boss a winning send-off.
Partially still in holiday mode, I almost put Cubanita up for selection today in the 1.50 Newbury, where there are some stats to suggest that 10/1 E/W could represent some decent value, but that might have seemed a little cheesy after my jollies, so we’re venturing to one of my own favourite Yorkshire hunting grounds for a crack at the…
Where Roger Varian sends just the one runner, a horse that looks very big in the market, as Severiano is currently trading as high as 10/1 E/W with both BetVictor & Coral.
Roger doesn’t send many here at all, but he had two winners and a runner-up from the five that represented here last year and today he is stepping his horse up a class, a tactic that has served him well in the past.
Team Varian has a record of 18 wins from 68 (26.5% SR) when stepping horses up a class in handicap races on the flat and this decent strike rate has yielded 39pts profit in the process, an ROI of almost 57.5% above stakes invested. A 45% place strike rate from these runners has also ensured a healthy E/W return too.
Severiano‘s best run cam at the back-end of 2013 when finishing second at Southwell off a mark of 64 over 7f and he has seemed to struggle to see the full 7f out in the past, which suggests a drop back to 6f here could well be the key to him breaking his duck at the eighth time of asking. He gets to run off that same 64 mark today, but his cause will be aided by the 3lb allowance claimed by jockey William Twiston-Davies here today, ensuring that our horse receives weight ( 2 to 19lbs) from all of his 14 rivals here today.
Roger Varian also has a decent record when employing the services of a 3lb claiming jockey, as shown by 9 winners from 24 (37.50% SR) over the last couple of years with corresponding profits of just over 39pts to boot. This represents a very healthy return of some 162.7% of stakes wagered with a place strike rate of exactly 50% bringing in over 45pts profit for the more cautious of punters.
Severiano has a decent draw here today, out in stall 13 of 15, on a track that favours the high numbers over short distances when there’s some give in the ground and if he can get away well enough and reproduces the way he has run the first 6 furlongs of most of his recent efforts, he’s sure to be there or thereabouts.
Top weight Klynch looks a tough nut to crack and is duly installed as a clear favourite, but I’m confident that we can at least grab a place, hence the 0.5pts E/W bet on Severiano at 10/1 BOG. I’ve got on with BetVictor, but you can also grab that same price at Coral, as you’ll see if you…
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