Double Dutch, 14th April 2014
Good Morning Everyone! I’m back in the hot seat after my spring break and I’ll be looking to pick up from the excellent form displayed by the boss in my absence.
No joy on Saturday, though, as we hit the woodwork in both races. Al Thakira went down by a head in the Fred Darling with Joyeuse a further length and a quarter back in third, whilst we also had to settle for second best at Bangor later in the afternoon.
How’s My Friend was the runner-up there after fellow selection Best Served Cold had unseated his rider. Three placers from four is decent and Matt has ramped up some good profits in my absence, something we aim to continue this week.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Al Thakira: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Joyeuse: 3rd at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
How’s My Friend: 2nd at 4/1 (adv 2/1)
Best Served Cold: UR at 8/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
210 winning selections from 727 = 28.89%
70 winning bets in 190 days = 36.84%
P/L : +66.91pts (+17.70% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is how I’m going to play on Monday…
Ten go to post for this one, but I can see it being a match between the top two in the market, namely New Youmzain and Tartan Jura.
Matt likes New Youmzain for his daily Shortlist and it’s easy to see why, when you look at our racecard analysis. Prior success at this class and on this going are in his favour, as is the size of field and he runs off a mark 4lbs lower than his last win. This lower mark is what first caught my eye, as the horses do very well statistically.
He makes his debut for the in-form Mick Appleby today and Mick has a great record with horses running for him first time out, making New Youmzain the one to beat here at 15/8 BOG.
Tartan Jura is no mug, either. He is, however, top weight and carrying a penalty for a win last week and this probably is the main reason that he’s as long as 4/1 BOG with BetVictor. He was doing his best work at the end of that race and looked like he was finding more all the time and should relish the step up to this marathon task today. I wouldn’t see him beating New Youmzain over a shorter trip, but if the favourite doesn’t stay, Tartan Jura is the most likely of the challengers here.
I looked at this race last night and selected Lockedoutaheaven for Stat of the Day, but he’s now one of two non-runners here leaving just eight to go to post and clearing the way for either Wylye or Love Tangle to seize their opportunity of my first choice’s withdrawal.
Of the two, I have a slight preference for the longer priced Love Tangle at 100/30 BOG with BetVictor. he got off the mark at the second time of asking in his last race at Nottingham back in November over 8.5f and although the form hasn’t worked out too well from that race, he was still a good winner and his breeding suggests that he’ll prefer the extra 3f asked of him here today.
Wylye‘s sole effort to date was a win on debut at Newbury 170 days ago. She rallied inside the final furlong that day to stay on and win by a neck in testing heavy conditions over a mile and whilst this trip is an unknown factor here, the ground will be far less taxing on her stamina reserves. Several of the horses she beat that day have gone on to run well since and her trainer Andrew Balding’s three-year olds are running well of late, giving us hope that she’s going to be the main rival to our selection. She drops down in class here today and can be backed at a best price of 15/8 BOG with Boylesports.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
New Youmzain / Wylye @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : Boylesports)
New Youmzain / Love Tangle @ 10.50/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : Boylesports & PP)
Tartan Jura / Wylye @ 12.75/1 (4/1 & 7/4 : BetVictor)
Tartan Jura / Love Tangle @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : BetVictor & Hills)