Stat of the Day, 14th April 2014
It’s rare for us to highlight a 10/1 winner on SotD and an even rarer occasion when I’m not entirely ecstatic to have done so, yet both of those events occurred on my first day back “in the chair” on Saturday.
I was torn between two runners both priced at 10/1 for my daily selection, Cubanita had several qualifying stats to support her nomination, yet after a fortnight away in Cuba, I felt it might have looked a little bit contrived to the neutral observer.
Of course, she won and my official pick Severiano ran somewhat below par (sorry!), having failed to get away quick enough to take advantage of an excellent draw.
Many of you backed Cubanita as well (as did I!) and recouped some of the recent losses we’ve endured, but the official SotD record will show another point dropped. March & April are difficult punting months, but our long-term (c.150pts in 29 months) success fills us with enough confidence to ride out the storm and get back amongst the winners.
This will hopefully start today in the…
It’s a Monday in the Flat Season, so it has to be Windsor, where Marco Botti’s sole runner anywhere today is the handicap debutant Lockedoutaheaven.
Windsor has been a happy hunting ground for Signor Botti of late and in the last two years his record here with runners priced at 8/1 or shorter reads 215116212131, that’s 6 winners and 4 placers from 12 runners with a level stakes profit of 14.2pts (+118.33% ROI) to boot.
18.5pts profit is the return for E/W bets from those runners and whilst the E/W ROI is lower than the win bets, 77.1% is still a very good return on investment.
Marco Botti is also one of the best trainers at finding races for his horses to win on handicap debut: he has a near 28% strike rate via 38 winners from 136 attempts and these winners have generated profits of 64.3pts or 47.3% of stakes to date.
Lockedoutaheaven comes here on the back of three progressively improving performances in Wolverhampton maidens and was only narrowly beaten (SH) by an 8/13 shot last time out. His opening mark of 70 looks quite fair and his effort will be helped by a 5lb jockey claim which should make him very competitive here today.
6/1 BOG is currently available and I think there’s enough juice in that price to take a safety-first E/W approach today, so I’m staking 0.5pts E/W on Lockedoutaheaven at 6/1 BOG with BetVictor for this one.
Bet365 are also offering 6/1 BOG, but for the full market…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS