Double Dutch, 15th April 2014
No winning return to action for me yesterday after Love Tangle and Wylye were beaten into third and fourth places respectively in our second race.
We did manage to pick the winner of race 1, as New Youmzain just about found enough late on to win a 2m 5.5f marathon by just a neck! Our other selection Tartan Jura ran poorly and was the last of ten home.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
New Youmzain: won at evens (adv 15/8)
Tartan Jura: u/p at 8/1 (adv 4/1)
Love Tangle: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 100/30)
Wylye: 4th at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
211 winning selections from 731 = 28.86%
70 winning bets in 191 days = 36.84%
P/L : +66.91pts (+17.70% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We’ve both A/W and chase action for you on Tuesday, starting with the…
Each of On The Cusp‘s last seven races have been here at Southwell with two wins and three further places, so it’s safe to say that he’s likes the surface. He was headed inside the final furlong last time out and was eventually beaten by three parts of a length, but today’s contest is a furlong shorter than last time and the booking of talented rising star Oisin Murphy has to be seen as a positive, especially as the horse gets to compete off the same mark as last time out.
On The Cusp is currently available at 100/30 BOG with SkyBet, because the well-fancied Geeaitch is in opposition today and this one is my second choice at 3/1 BOG in places. Geeaitch was impressive when winning here over course and distance thirteen days ago. That was his Fibresand debut and he seemed to cope with the conditions ideally and I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t further improvement today. He’s up 5lbs for that win, but even running off 60 doesn’t look like he’s too badly treated just yet.
I’m siding with Gores Island here on the back of his last two runs, where he was second on both occasions over today’s course and distance. He was unfortunate to run into a couple of progressive types in those two races and this one looks a weaker and therefore more winnable affair. He runs off the same mark of 115 as LTO and the same as his last victory at Sandown in November. He’s the form yardstick here and I expect his consistency to be enough to land this at 7/2 BOG.
Speedy Bruere has been here or thereabouts in most of his races, despite not actually winning any of his last eight outings (33P52P32), but if he comes here in the right frame of mind, the step back up in trip might well be the key to getting him back in the winners’ enclosure. He won twice over a similar trip to today a year ago immediately prior to the afore-mentioned 8 runs. He wasn’t beaten by far LTO and a similar run could be enough to take this at 100/30 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Geeaitch / Speedy Bruere @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 100/30 : Bet365)
Geeaitch / Gores Island @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Bet365)
On The Cusp / Speedy Bruere @ 17.78/1 (100/30 & 100/30 : SkyBet)
On The Cusp / Gores Island @ 18.49/1 (100/30 & 7/2 : SkyBet & Hills)