Stat of the Day, 16th April 2014
SotD’s recent dismal run continued on Tuesday as Take The Crown could only manage to finish third despite being heavily backed down to 11/8 from our overnight advisory price of 3/1.
The final margin of defeat was just over five lengths, which probably flattered the leading pair, as I don’t think our jockey rode out to the finish, once he realised the game was up. He did enough to hold on to third place and with a driving finish he would have got closer to those ahead of him, but I doubt he’d have improved his placing, so I have no gripes there.
Twilight hurdling in the North East represents out next attempt at getting off the cold list, as I tackle the…
Where I’m backing Barry Murtagh’s quadruple course and distance winner Stanley Bridge at 9/2 BOG with Bet365.
On paper, this race actually looks like it’s Dalmo’s to lose, but the short-priced (Evens at present) favourite carries a seven pound penalty as he attempts to complete a hat-trick inside 10 days. My logic is that this might be too much too soon at too high a weight and also that his price represents little/no value for this one.
Stanley Bridge has won over this course and distance on four of seven attempts with two further places from his three defeats (2131611). The last of those seven runs was his last outing 26 days ago when he beat Ben Cee Pee M by a length and a quarter with that horse going on to win by the same margin next time out (at Market Rasen 10 days ago). Stanley Bridge is up in the weights from 92 to 97, but his penultimate C&D victory was off a mark of 101, so he’s more than capable of taking this.
Craig Nichol takes the ride today and his 5lb claim is likely to be very useful here, as trainer Barry Murtagh is very adept with his usage of these claiming jockeys. Since the start of 2011, Mr Murtagh has had 25 runners priced under 12/1 ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs. 10 of the 25 (40% SR) have been returned as winners, netting followers a massive 54.6pts profit in the process, a return equivalent to some 218.4% of stakes invested.
From that excellent 10/25 record, the figures here at Sedgefield are 4 wins from 4 for 24.4pts and from the original 25, today’s selection Stanley Bridge is two from two.
Barry Murtagh is also 3/11 with hurdlers who won last time out and although that’s a small sample, it’s still provides some extra encouragement and I feel we’ve enough here to justify opposing a short-priced favourite, which is why I’m backing Stanley Bridge to win at 9/2 BOG with Bet365.
No other firm has shown their hand just yet. Mind you, it is only 5.15pm on Tuesday! However, once the others follow suit, the quickest and easiest way to see all the prices in one simple to read clear format, is to…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS