Stat of the Day, 17th April 2014
A runner-up at 10/1 finishing around three lengths behind an odds-on jolly us a pretty good E/W bet in my book and I know many of you made a small profit out of Stanley Bridge via that method.
My general (but not set in stone!) approach to staking for SotD is 1pt win for those runners priced below 6/1 and 0.5pts E/W above those odds. Unfortunately when I wrote Wednesday’s piece, I could only get 9/2 about the selection and so it was a win only bet. And to be honest, I thought that was about right,
Once he’d gone beyond 6/1 early morning, I did add a footnote suggesting that an E/W bet would now be the way forward and I also placed another bet for myself to cover my first one! As it happened, he ran far more like a 9/2 shot than a 10/1 chance, but nevertheless he didn’t win.
Many of us made a small profit, but the official record will show another “-1”, something I’m seeing far too many of and I hope to stop that flow with Thursday’s…
Where talented 3lb claiming jockey Jason Hart will ride the 9/2 chance Barkston Ash for trainer Eric Alston and I’ve a whole host of stats to support the selection!
1. Barkston Ash drops down in class for this race and in the 2011/14 period, Eric Alston’s record with horses dropping in class is 26 winners from 125 runners, a 20.8% strike rate yielding 84.3pts level stakes profits, a return of almost 67.5% of all stakes invested.
The market is generally a good guide to how Eric’s class droppers will perform as 19 of the 25 winners were priced below 8/1. 76% of the winners coming from just 41.6% of the runners as the sub-8/1 record actually reads 19 winners from 52 (36.54% SR) for 43.2pts (+83% ROI) profit.
2. Mr. Alston is also another one of those trainers who allocates rides to claimer jockeys very wisely. In the same 2011/14 period, a jockey with a 3lb claim has ridden 15 winners from the 73 rides handed to them. This 20.55% strike rate has returned profits of 42.85pts to date, a yield of 58.7% above stakes. Of those 73 rides, today’s jockey Jason Hart has been in the saddle 36 times, winning seven times (19.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 37.35pts or 103.8% of all stakes.
Once again, we can follow the market with Eric’s claimer jockeys with all bar one of the 15 winners above coming in at 10/1 or less. The record at 10/1 or under is an impressive 14/42 (33.33% SR) for 51.95pts (+123.7% ROI) profits with Jason Hart’s not inconsiderable contribution being 6/23 (26.1%SR) for 28.45pts (also +123.7% ROI!)
The name Jason Hart should be becoming quite familiar to you now. He’s one of the new crop of riding stars and is also one of Matt’s Jockeys to Follow. The excellent article I’ve just highlighted gives you a full over view of Jason’s record to date, but as he’s claiming 3lbs today, I’d like to focus in on how he rides with his claim.
3. To date Jason has ridden 32 winners from the 186 times he’s used a 3lb claim with that 17.2% strike rate generating 68.8pts profit to boot, that’s the equivalent of 37p in the pound from all bets. As with the stats above, the market is once again a decent indicator of Jason’s success, with the best results coming from those horses sent off at 10/1 or under, where his record reads 28/137 (20.44% SR) for 86.9pts (+63.4% ROI) profit.
But what about the horse, Barkston Ash?
Well, all 8 career wins have come at this trip, including a C&D win on one of his two races here in the past: he was third on the other occasion. He’s 4/14 on good ground, but doesn’t mind a bot of cut in the ground if it hasn’t completely dried out by race time. He was actually third at Doncaster last time out in a big field (18) on soft ground and may well have needed that run to get up to full race sharpness.
He’ll appreciate the better ground here, being a Kyllachy offspring, as those runners by Kyllachy are 25/178 (14% SR) for 54.65pts ( +30.7% ROI) in the last three seasons over 6 furlongs on good ground.
Hopefully I’ve not overloaded you with stats, but needless to say, I’m quietly confident about getting off the cold list with a 1pt win bet on Barkston Ash. I’ve taken 9/2 BOG from Bet365, but the same price is on offer at both Hills & PP, so why not…
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