Stat of the Day, 18th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th April 2014

Jason Hart gave Barkston Ash the perfect ride yesterday to land a nice 9/2 winner for us.

He hit the front from the start and made all to score by just over a length. He was pressed inside the final furlong by the Fahey-trained favourite, but found more when needed to secure a fairly comfortable victory.

The icing on the cake was the extra half point we grabbed above the 4/1 SP.

We have Good Friday racing for the first time and we’re off to the…

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3.50 Musselburgh:

And William Haggas’ handicap debutant Bilimbi, who despite running from a pound outside the handicap, is currently positioned as the 9/2 BOG favourite for this one.

Bilimbi was last seen 171 days ago when winning a 7f maiden at Yarmouth and steps up to a mile for his first crack in handicap company.

The step up in trip isn’t a major issue to me, as over the last six years William Haggas has stepped 100 horses up in trip for their handicap debut and 28 of the 100 (28% SR) have gone on to win, recording level stakes profits of 45.02pts in the process.

If we focus on those runners that have been priced more in line with SotD selections ie 13/8 to 7/1, we get 25 winners from 65 runners, a 38.5% strike rate yielding a massive 56.32pts (+86.65% ROI) profits. Last year alone, these runners were 7/12 for 23.3pts!

I’m also not unduly concerned about the horse’s 171 day absence either, as over the same six-year period as above, the record of William Haggas’ runners priced below 7/1 returning from a break of over 5 months since a win or a runner-up finish last time out is 11 wins from 35.

I accept that it’s not the biggest sample size I’ve ever quoted, but a 31.4% strike rate shouldn’t be dismissed as irrelevant, nor should the 32.3% ROI achieved via the 11.3pts profit either. And as a secondary stat, it supports the main selection well, especially if you consider that the trainer has a 44% strike rate at this track (11 wins from 44) and the resultant 16pts profit is equivalent to 64% of stakes invested.

Bilimbi was impressively progressive last season, despite seeming bred for further than he was asked to travel and the extra furlong will not only suit him, it will probably only be a stepping stone to longer distances in the future.

His opening handicap mark of 80 looks quite lenient and I think he’ll give a good account of himself here, hence a 1pt win bet at 9/2 BOG. I’ve gone with SkyBet, but the same is offer in other places, as you’ll see when you…

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