Double Dutch, 19th April 2014
Categorical’s short head defeat was the nearest I got to a winner yesterday and my current cold snap continues.
Yet, I’m confident of turning things around and the bottom line is that we’re still almost 60pts in profit with a healthy ROI of over 15% from all stakes.
Good (?) Friday’s results were as follows:
Heeraat: u/p at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
Morawij: u/p at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
Categorical: 2nd at 11/2 (adv 11/4)
Naburn: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
213 winning selections from 747 = 28.51%
70 winning bets in 195 days = 35.90%
P/L : +58.91pts (+15.26% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Plenty of racing today and hopefully I’ve singled out two races that will provide us with some winners, starting with the…
Bennys Well has been ultra consistent in these longer-distance chase events of late, winning three of his last nine starts at 3 miles and beyond and finishing as the runner-up in of the remaining six outings (215222121). He has, of course, risen considerably in the weights this season as a result of that terrific form, but he is getting chunks of weight from his rivals here and it is expected that a recent wind operation could very well help improve even further.
Stamina never seems to be an issue for Bennys Well and he is developing a good relationship with jockey Jonathan England since a switch to Sue Smith’s yard. Course familiarity is also a plus as his LTO win was also here at Haydock a month ago and he’s now 11/4 BOG to repeat the feat.
You could make a case for most of his rivals as a secondary bet, but I’m siding with Red Rocco, despite him not having won since late-December 2012. In fairness, he has only had six runs in the 16 months since then and has been running at longer trips than today and at a higher level. The drop in trip and class should really help him here. His best two runs in those recent defeats have both been here at Haydock.
He was 2nd of 11 over 3m 5f on soft ground in November and hee was sitting in 2nd place in the Grade 3 Grand National trail here in February when he blundered the last fence and unseated his rider. He travelled well for most of the Midlands National (Listed) last time out, but 4m 1.5f on good to soft ground was too much in the end and he weakened to finish a creditable 5th of 16 at 20/1. He drops back to 3m4f here on better ground at a lower grade and those factors should make Red Rocco competitive at 4/1 BOG.
God Willing was beaten by less than 4 lengths in a decent Group 3 race on his last start as a 2yr old with the winner going on to win again and the third placed horse finishing third again in a Listed race as recently as Wednesday of this week. He’s rated at 105 by the BHA, a good 15lbs clear of his nearest rival and so really should take this if running to his capabilities. We’re not going to break the bank at 7/4 BOG, but if race 1 has found a winner, this would be a good multiplier for us.
I’m not overly keen on any of his rivals here, but my tentative backup plan is going to be the 5/1 BOG (Stan James) shot Championship, who was impressive when winning on his debut at Newbury over 6f last May, before tackling better quality races in the form of the Group 2 Coventry Stakes and the Group 3 Tattersall Stakes, where he was a couple of lengths behind the main selection God Willing. He’s fairly closely matched with the opposing Zampa Manos who has some solid handicap form to date, but that horse is looking a little more exposed now. It’s not the most confident of selections here, but then again, I expect the favourite to win.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Bennys Well / God Willing @ 8.84/1 (11/4 & 13/8 : BetVictor & Stan James)
Bennys Well / Championship @ 21.50/1 (11/4 & 5/1 : Stan James)
Red Rocco / God Willing @ 12.75/1 (4/1 & 7/4 : generally)
Red Rocco / Championship @ 26.50/1 (4/1 & 9/2 : generally)