Stat of the Day, 19th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th April 2014

Wow! a 7/1 winner yesterday will certainly have lifted spirits and profit levels yesterday. We’ve often said that SotD seems to follow a cyclical pattern on the route to long-term success and so this week has proved the case.

We’ve snapped a long losing run with back to back winners yielding 11.5pts and Friday’s runner Bilimbi was a comfortable winner in the end. He’s bred to get further than a mile, so he could be one to look out for this season.

I had a couple of family things to deal with this morning (nothing serious), so I’m a little late to press tonight, but hey, it’s the Easter Weekend! Let’s attempt to land the hat-trick in the…

4.10 Carlisle:

Where I’ve just taken 5/2 BOG with SkyBet about Dianne Sayer’s only runner of the day, Baileys Concerto, who aims to follow up from his win at Hexham 19 days ago. Many people like to back horses when they’re a trainers sole runner on the day, but the reasons behind today’s pick are…

1. Backing all Dianne Sayer’s NH Handicap runners is profitable!

In 2011/14 alone, she has saddled up 69 winners from 503 runners (13.72% Stirke rate) for a profit of some 198.07pts (+39.38% ROI) and when we focus more on the kind of odds we tend to play at for SotD purposes: 40 winners from 148 between evens and 6/1. 40/148 is a 27% strike rate and the resultant 65.94pts propfit is equivalent to 44.55% of stakes. Therefore, we can be confident about long-term profits if we back all her runners.

2. Mrs Sayer also has a good record when she turns her chasers back out quickly after a good run.

Over the last four years, she has sent out 52 handicap chasers to run again within three weeks of a top 4 finish last time out. Fifteen of those horses have gone on to win for a strike rate of 28.85% and the profits returned are excellent at 59.3pt or 97.2% of stakes.

Baileys Concerto won at hexham 14 days ago and therefore not only is he Dianne’s only chance of prize money today, he also satisfies both stats and that will do for me!

So, the call is a 1pt win bet on Baileys Concerto at 5/2 BOG with SkyBet and you can see the whole market if you just…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.10 Carlisle

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.