Double Dutch, 21st April 2014
I think Saturday might well represent a new nadir in my form here on Double Dutch! From what looked (on paper, at least!) reasonable chances to get out of the cold, it was just horrible!
In race 1 Red Rocco was leading before being pulled up sharply at the 13th, leaving Bennys Well in the lead, where he stayed until falling 3 fences later and that was that.
This meant that the action 45 minutes later was purely a pride salvaging operation, but that didn’t go too well either, I’m afraid, as Sod’s Law once again reared his ugly head. I fully expected God Willing to win, but had no extra to give in a tight finish. He was eventually fourth, but less than 2 lengths off the winner.
This leads us to my second choice Championship, about whom I wrote…“He’s fairly closely matched with the opposing Zampa Manos who has some solid handicap form to date, but that horse is looking a little more exposed now…”
Of course, Championship duly trailed home last of the six runners, a good 25+ lengths behind his nearest rival, whilst Zampa Manos ran out the 22/1 winner, courtesy of another great ride by Oisin Murphy, one of Matt’s Jockeys to Follow!
Talk about adding insult to injury.
Easter Saturday’s results were as follows:
Red Rocco: PU at 2/1 (adv 4/1)
Bennys Well: fell at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
God Willing: 4th of 6 at 5/4 (adv 7/4)
Championship: last of 6 at 4/1 (adv 5/1)
Results to date:
213 winning selections from 751 = 28.36%
70 winning bets in 196 days = 35.71%
P/L : +56.91pts (+14.67% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
There is so much racing today (and much of it mediocre), that I’m struggling to see the woods for the trees, but I’ve gone for a couple of small fields race that seem to lack depth/quality. Time will, of course, be my judge, starting in the…
Balzaccio looks the best on show here and he represents the Fergal O’Brien yard which is on great form at present (5/20 in the last fortnight and a 44/1 across the card double on Saturday!). This horse looks better suited to a step up to 3 miles here and steps down in class from running at Newbury, where although he wasn’t disgraced in 5th place, it was probably too much for him to handle. He’s 131 here at Huntingdon and I fancy him to land this at 15/8 BOG (Stan James).
There’s not much to choose between his rivals Little Chip and Balbriggan, but I have to make the choice! Neither are setting the world alight at present, but Little Chip looks to hold Balbriggan on the basis of a contest at Leicester where the former finished 13 lengths ahead. It’s admittedly a tentative backup at 100/30 BOG (BetVictor & Hills), but in truth, I’m expecting my first pick to win!
I mentioned Oisin Murphy earlier as a jockey riding really well and I can see him getting Dancing Freddy home at 15/8 BOG (Hills) today. This one has been consistent in defeat, but running well enough to finish 32272 in his last five outings and was only beaten by a neck late on at Pontefract a week ago. He gets to run off the same mark (69) today and with Mr Murphy in the saddle, we might just see him produce the little extra needed to score a first win on almost two years.
With three wins in her last six outings, 7/2 shot (generally) Megaleka has to be seen as the main danger. She’s at the top of her game at present and seems to be improving all the time. She’s up 6lbs for her latest win at Catterick twelve days ago, but her jockey Tim Clark (4/11 on her) sees his claim upped from 3lbs to 5lbs for this encounter, which negates a third of the horse’s weight rise. If the favourite doesn’t find that extra needed, then don’t be surprised if Megaleka attempts to pull away late on.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Balzaccio / Dancing Freddy @ 6.91/1 (7/4 & 15/8 : Hills)
Balzaccio / Megaleka @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : SkyBet & Boylesports)
Little Chip / Dancing Freddy @ 11.46/1 (100/30 & 15/8 : Hills)
Little Chip / Megaleka @ 18.50/1 (100/30 & 7/2 : BetVictor)