Stat of the Day, 21st April 2014
Baileys Concerto was a pretty comfortable winner on Saturday to help us to a hat-trick of wins to close out the week before Easter. Our 5/2 BOG was quickly eroded by 10% down to 9/4 BOG, just a few minutes after I’d published the piece,but that still proved a decent price after he was returned at 7/4.
He tracked the leaders patiently whilst travelling best of the four runners, before taking the lead over the last fence. No stick or driving finish was required as he just eased himself into a six lengths lead on the run-in to maintain his trainer’s excellent record in NH handicaps.
Easter Monday is tricky, due to the sheer number of runners/races, but I think we might have something in the…
As with Saturday, just four runners here, but a similarly priced 5/2 BOG shot looks to represent value, as I’m backing James Evans’ 9 yr old chaser Roc de Guye, who comes here looking to extend a decent run of form (3111421 in the last 10 months!) and a rise in the weights will hopefully be partially negated by the presence of jockey Mark Quinlan and his 3lb claim.
1. Also, like Saturday, James Evans is another one of those trainers who consistently produces profits in NH handicap races and since 2010 he has a 19.7% strike rate in these contests.
That strike rate comes via a 26/132 record, which in turn has generated 85.6pts (+64.8% ROI) profits at level stakes and of which his chasers are 18/81 (22.22% SR) for 43.4pts (+53.6% ROI).
If we filter out some of the longer priced runners and impose an 8/1 odds cap, his handicappers as a whole have won 19 of 91 (20.9%) contests for profits of 31.6pts, a return of 34.7% of stakes, but at these lower odds, his chasers have excelled with 16 winners from 59. This 27.1% strike rate has been responsible for 43pts profit, or 72.9% of stakes.
2. Mr Evans doesn’t use claiming jockeys very often, but seems to do pretty well with them on the few occasions that he calls upon them. In the last two years, the record is 4/21 for 12.32pts with runners below 12/1.
3. Roc de Guye is a useful performer at this level and is one to back when running on the back of a decent run last time out. Backing him after a top 3 finish last time out would have netted you 5 winners from 16 and 24.2pts profits from level stakes and all those five wins came from the thirteen races where that top three finish was preceded by a top five finish. He has finished 421 in his last three outings, so this stat was proved right last time out too!
He’s clearly no mug and at 5/2 BOG, there seems to be some value in the selection. I know he’s up in the weights, but so are his rivals. To that end, I’m backing Roc de Guye at 5/2 BOG with BetVictor, but the price is widely available. The easiest way to see what your preferred bookie is offering is to simply…
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